(Reuters) - The labels "dove" and "hawk" have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the COVID-19 pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering U.S. economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.
The risks are now seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.
The following chart shows officials' latest views on the outlook for Fed policy and the economy. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.
For a breakdown of how Reuters' counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Patrick Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Michelle
Harker, Fed Chair, Atlanta Fed Bowman,
Philadelphia permanent President, 2024 Governor,
Fed voter: “I don't voter: Now permanent
President, think that it is expects one voter:"Whi
2026 voter: likely based on rate cut this le the
When it comes the data we have year, in the current
to a rate that the next fourth quarter, stance of
cut, "I think move that we down from two monetary
we're close, make will be a previously policy
give us a rate hike…It is (April 3, appears to
couple of more likely ... 2024). "We're be at a
meetings." we hold the just going to restrictiv
Feb 22, 2024 policy rate have to be e level, I
where it is.." patient and remain
May 14, 2024 wait until willing to
inflation gives raise the
us signals that federal
it is more funds rate
robustly at a
heading towards future
2%." May 9, meeting
2024 should the
incoming
data
indicate
that
progress
on
inflation
has
stalled or
reversed."
May 3,
2024
John Williams, Loretta Mester,
New York Fed Cleveland Fed
President, President, 2024
permanent voter: voter*: Three
Three rate cuts rate cuts in
in 2024 is "a 2024 "feels
reasonable kind about right."
of starting (Feb 29, 2024)
point." (Feb 28, "It’s too early
2024) "At some to really
point, we'll conclude that
want to be more we stalled out
neutral and that or that
means a lower inflation is
interest rate …I going to
don't see that reverse." May
happening…in the 14, 2024
very near
term…we do need
to get this
greater
confidence in
inflation, and
I'm not seeing
signs that the
maximum
employment goal
is at risk." May
15, 2024
Philip Thomas Barkin,
Jefferson, Vice Richmond Fed
Chair: "My President, 2024
baseline outlook voter: Lower
continues to be consumer
that inflation inflation in
will decline April was
further, with “good, but
the policy rate still not where
held steady at we are trying
its current to get.” May
level." April 16, 2024
16, 2024
Michael Barr, Jeffrey Schmid,
Vice Chair of Kansas City Fed
Supervision, President, 2025
permanent voter: voter: "I am
"It's very early prepared to be
to say whether patient." May
we end up with a 14, 2024
'soft landing'
or not." Feb 14,
2024
Christopher Neel Kashkari,
Waller, Minneapolis Fed
Governor, President, 2026
permanent voter: voter: Penciled
"There is no in two 2024
rush to cut the rate cuts in
policy rate." March. "We
March 27, 2024 probably need
to sit here for
a while longer
until we figure
out where
underlying
inflation is
headed." May
15, 2024
Lisa Cook, Lorie Logan,
Governor, Dallas Fed
permanent voter: President, 2026
"Fully restoring voter: "I think
price stability it's just too
may take a early to think
cautious about cutting
approach to rates." May 10,
easing monetary 2024
policy over
time." March 25,
2024
Adriana Kugler,
Governor,
permanent voter:
"If disinflation
and labor market
conditions
proceed as I am
currently
expecting, then
some lowering of
the policy rate
this year would
be appropriate."
April 3, 2024
Mary Daly, San
Francisco Fed
President, 2024
voter: Three
rate cuts this
year is "a very
reasonable
baseline."
(April 2, 2024)
"I'm in a
wait-and-see
mode.” May 9,
2024.
Austan Goolsbee,
Chicago Fed
President, 2025
voter: At the
median Fed
expectation for
three rate cuts
in 2024 (March
25, 2024). ”We
clearly hit a
bump at the
start of this
year, and we’ve
just got to get
comfort that
it’s not a sign
of a
reacceleration
of the economy."
May 3, 2024
Susan Collins,
Boston Fed
President, 2025
voter: Expects
"in the range of
two" rate cuts
for 2024 (April
11, 2024) “I do
think that
holding in this
restrictive
range for longer
will in an
orderly way”
help to slow the
economy. May 8,
2024
*Mester hits the Fed banks' mandatory retirement age in June; if a successor is not yet hired by the Fed's July 30-31 meeting, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee would vote until one is.
Notes: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred in July 2023. Half of policymakers as of mid-March thought three rate cuts this year would be appropriate; just as many thought it would be fewer, projections released after their March 19-20 meeting showed. Two of 19 thought there would be none. Alberto Musalem, who started as the St. Louis Fed's president on April 2, has not made any substantive policy remarks and is not included in the dove-hawk matrix.
All 12 regional Fed presidents debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chair and vice chairs, have permanent votes on the FOMC.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Apr/May '24 0 1 10 6 1
March '24 0 1 11 5 1
Jan '24 0 2 9 4 1
Dec '23 0 2 9 4 1
Oct/Nov '23 0 2 7 5 2
Sept '23 0 4 3 6 3
June '23 0 3 3 8 3
March '23 0 2 3 10 2
Dec '22 0 4 1 12 2
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci)
