By Humeyra Pamuk, Alexander Cornwell and Matt Spetalnick
WASHINGTON/DUBAI (Reuters) -The Biden administration and Saudi Arabia are finalizing an agreement for U.S. security guarantees and civilian nuclear assistance, even as an Israel-Saudi normalization deal envisioned as part of a Middle East “grand bargain” remains elusive, according to seven people familiar with the matter.
A working draft lays out principles and proposals aimed at putting back on track a U.S.-led effort to reshape the volatile region that was derailed by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel and the outbreak of war in Gaza, according to two sources who have seen the document.
It appears to be a long-shot strategy that faces numerous obstacles, not least the uncertainty over how the Gaza conflict will unfold.
U.S. and Saudi negotiators have, for now, prioritized a bilateral security accord that would then be part of a wider package presented to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who would have to decide whether to make concessions to secure historic ties with Riyadh, five of the sources said.
“We’re very close to reaching an agreement” on the U.S.-Saudi portion of the package, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Thursday, predicting that details could be ironed out “in very short order.”
That part of the plan is likely to call for formal U.S. guarantees to defend the kingdom as well as Saudi access to more advanced U.S. weaponry in return for halting Chinese arms purchases and restricting Beijing’s investment in the country, according to foreign diplomats in the Gulf and sources in Washington.
The U.S.-Saudi security accord is also expected to involve sharing emerging technologies with Riyadh, including artificial intelligence, according to people familiar with the matter.
The terms are expected to be finalized within weeks, a U.S. official said on condition of anonymity.
The conditions that Netanyahu will face to join a broader deal are expected to include winding down the war in Gaza and agreeing on a pathway to Palestinian statehood, both of which Netanyahu has steadfastly resisted.
U.S. officials hope Netanyahu will not want to pass up the historic opportunity to open relations with Saudi Arabia, guardian of Islam’s holiest sites, but are mindful of the domestic political pressures he is under, including keeping Israel’s most right-wing government ever from collapsing.
A broader pact giving the world's biggest oil exporter U.S. military protection together with normalization with Israel would unite two long-time foes and bind Riyadh to Washington at a time when China is making inroads in the region.
A normalization deal would also bolster Israel's defenses against arch-foe Iran and give U.S. President Joe Biden a diplomatic victory ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election.
Overhanging these efforts is Netanyahu’s threat to launch a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians are sheltering, despite U.S. entreaties to refrain from an operation that could mean further heavy civilian casualties.
NO NORMALIZATION WHILE GAZA CONFLICT RAGES
Saudi Arabia has called for an immediate truce leading to a permanent and sustainable ceasefire in Israel's war against Hamas and concrete steps toward establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
“Putting a proposal on the table, that's one thing, a proposal that we could take to Israel (for normalization),” Miller said. But Saudi Arabia, he added, has made clear there will be no normalization deal "while the conflict in Gaza is still raging.”
He spoke just a day after Secretary of State Antony Blinken returned from a Middle East trip in which he held separate talks with Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
While the Biden administration may be near to unveiling its plans, time is running short to make it a reality as the U.S. heads deeper into the presidential election campaign.
What Biden’s aides originally envisioned, in three-way negotiations before the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, was for the Saudis to gain U.S. security commitments in exchange for normalization with Israel. Now the administration is negotiating with Riyadh on a separate track and seeking to finalize the offer of a "grand bargain," which would leave Netanyahu to decide whether to join or miss out.
Miller said the components of the broader package - the U.S.-Saudi deal, potential normalization with Israel and a pathway to Palestinian statehood - would all be linked together. "None go forward without the other," he said.
It remains unclear whether U.S. defense guarantees for Saudi Arabia, which are expected to fall short of a full NATO-style pact, would be enshrined in a treaty requiring congressional ratification. But any agreement on nuclear cooperation is likely to require approval from Capitol Hill.
A proposed Saudi deal would face opposition in Congress, where many lawmakers have denounced Riyadh for intervention in Yemen, moves to prop up oil prices and its role in the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Senator Edward Markey, a longtime advocate for nuclear nonproliferation safeguards, said in a letter to fellow Democrat Biden on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia, "a nation with a terrible human rights record," cannot be trusted to use its nuclear program purely for peaceful purposes and will seek to develop nuclear weapons.
However, congressional aides said the right agreement could attract enough support to gain the two-thirds Senate majority needed to ratify a treaty, winning the support of Democrats for something that is a Biden priority, and Republicans, if Israel's government is on board.
(Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk and Matt Spetalnick in Washington and Alexander Cornwell in the Gulf; Additional reporting by Patricia Zengerle, Steve Holland, Simon Lewis, Jonathan Landay and Daphne Psaledakis; Writing by Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Don Durfee and Daniel Wallis)
