Analyst on how Hamas political leader's death could impact ceasefire negations

(CNN) — Hamas said its political leader Ismail Haniyeh has been killed in an overnight strike in the Iranian capital Tehran, a major development that throws the war between Israel and the militant group into an unpredictable and dangerous new phase.

Haniyeh’s death is, both strategically and symbolically, a dramatic blow to Hamas, eliminating its most public figure who headed up the group’s political operations while living overseas.

He is the second leader of an Iran-backed group reported to have been assassinated in the last day, following the killing of Hezbollah’s most senior military commander in Lebanon.

In a statement, Hamas accused Israel of targeting Haniyeh and his bodyguard in a “strike” on the building in which he was staying in Tehran, where he had participated in Tuesday’s inauguration of the new Iranian president. Hamas officials said Haniyeh’s death would “not pass in vain” and described the killing as a “grave escalation,” while Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said it was Iran’s “duty” to avenge Haniyeh’s death since he was killed inside Iran. According to the New York Times, which cited information provided by three Iranian officials, Khamenei issued an order for Iran to “strike Israel directly” following the killing.

At a news conference in Tehran later Wednesday, Hamas spokesperson and deputy head Khalil Al-Hayya said Haniyeh was hit directly by a rocket in the room where he was staying, and said Israel would “pay the price” for the “heinous crime.”

Iranian state run media IRNA said the strike happened at around 2 a.m. local time (6:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday), involving an “airborne guided projectile.” Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was sworn in on Tuesday and Hamas released pictures the same day of Haniyeh meeting Iranian officials in Tehran. State-affiliated Fars said Haniyeh was staying in a residence in north Tehran.

Israel’s military said it does not respond to reports in foreign media, though senior officials have previously vowed to eliminate Hamas and its leadership in response to the group’s October 7 attack on Israel. It later said it was “conducting a situational assessment.”

In contrast, Israel did confirm it carried out a strike in Beirut, Lebanon, on Tuesday that killed Hezbollah commander Fu’ad Shukr, whom it blamed for a deadly attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend. Hezbollah later confirmed Shukr’s death. His assassination was the most serious Israeli escalation in its confrontation with the powerful Lebanese militant group since it restarted in earnest last October.

Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, launched following the attacks led by the militant group on October 7, has sparked increasingly intense, near-daily ripples of conflict throughout the region. This week’s dual strikes, which came within several hours of each other, seemingly escalate that discord on multiple fronts, and will prompt renewed fears of an all-out war breaking out in the Middle East.

In a televised address Wednesday evening, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had delivered “crushing blows” to its enemies in the last few days, but did not mention the death of Haniyeh.

“We’ll settle the score with anyone who harms us, anyone who massacres our children, anyone who murders our citizens,” Netanyahu said.

In a bellicose speech, he said he did not “give in” to earlier calls to end the war in Gaza “and I am not giving in today.” He conceded “these are challenging days,” but stressed Israel is “ready for any scenario.”

This week’s strikes may also dash any remaining hopes of a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza being reached in the near future, amid a catastrophic humanitarian crisis in the enclave. Haniyeh had played a leading role representing Hamas in months-long truce negotiations, which have repeatedly appeared to reach the cusp of a breakthrough, only to collapse at the last moment.

In a statement after the strike, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum – which is campaigning to free the hostages still held in Gaza – said that “while (Israel’s) military operations over the past 10 months have achieved significant security gains, true achievement can only be realized with the release of all 115 hostages still in captivity.” It urged the Israeli government “to decisively advance negotiations.”

Killing will ‘complicate’ ceasefire talks

Haniyeh is the second Hamas senior leader to be killed since the war in Gaza began. In January, the group said the deputy head of its political bureau, Saleh Al Arouri, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. Arouri was considered one of the founding members of Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.

The impact of any single death in Hamas’ leadership structure is difficult to predict given the group’s vast and opaque network, and it has been able to weather the death of other key leaders before – including the slaying of its co-founders Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi, killed weeks apart in 2004.

But Haniyeh’s death leaves Hamas without its public political figurehead, and likely represents a major setback to its international operations. It would not be expected to dramatically impact its military effort, but his demise may carry symbolic weight throughout the organization.

He had taken a central role in hostage and ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, and earlier this spring said Hamas was willing to strike a deal – but added it would require Israel withdrawing from Gaza and a guarantee to cease fighting in the enclave permanently, demands that Israel has called “unacceptable.”

A source with knowledge of the negotiations told CNN on Wednesday that Haniyeh’s death could “complicate mediation talks.”

The source said Haniyeh – along with Hamas’ military leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar – was a “key decision maker.”

“He was someone who saw the value of a deal and was instrumental to getting certain breakthroughs in the talks,” the source added.

Haniyeh was in touch with mediators in Qatar and Egypt as recently as early July. Those talks now hang in the balance, despite some hope earlier this month that they were nearing a framework agreement.

“How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on other side?” Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, a mediator in the talks, posted on X on Wednesday. Qatar’s capital, Doha, also hosts the main Hamas political bureau. “Peace needs serious partners & a global stance against the disregard for human life,” Al-Thani wrote.

Dual deaths raise fears of all-out war

The killings of Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah’s Shukr in Beirut are significant in both their timing and location.

Brigadier General (Res.) Assaf Orion, senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies think tank, said the two deaths “increase the likelihood of an axis response, adding Iran and other proxy attacks to the menu.”

Iran has spent years investing in regional proxy groups, informally known as the “Axis of Resistance” – an anti-Israel and anti-Western alliance – supplying them with money, weapons, and training as Tehran has sought to broaden its influence across the Middle East.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Iran sees it as its duty to avenge the killing of Haniyeh because he was assassinated on Iranian soil.

“You killed our dear guest in our house and now have paved the way for your harsh punishment,” Khamenei said in a statement referring to Israel. “We consider it our duty to ask for the blood of our dear guest.”

Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza has brought that longstanding shadow war with Iran out into the open – and inflamed opinion globally.

In a speech at the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday, Iran’s ambassador to the UN blamed the United States for the death of Haniyeh, saying it could not have happened without US authorization and intelligence support.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said the US was “not aware of or involved in” the killing. In calls with both the Jordanian and Qatari foreign ministers, Blinken said it was important to continue the ceasefire talks and to prevent “further escalation of the conflict,” according to State Department readouts.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, while traveling in the Philippines, said he does not think war in the Middle East is inevitable, but if Israel were to be attacked the United States would help defend it.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an elite wing of the Iranian military, said Haniyeh’s death was under investigation and results will be announced later Wednesday, according to Iranian state media.

And Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Haniyeh’s killing calling it “a cowardly act and a dangerous development,” according to the WAFA news agency on Wednesday. “His Excellency called on the masses and forces of our people to unite, be patient and steadfast in the face of the Israeli occupation,” WAFA reported.

A Hamas member for decades

Haniyeh, 62, was born in a refugee camp near Gaza City, and joined Hamas in the late 1980s during the First Intifada, or uprising.

As Hamas grew in power, Haniyeh rose through the ranks – being appointed part of a secret “collective leadership” in 2004. By 2017 he had become chief of the group – and was named a “specially designated global terrorist” by the US soon after.

Some Palestinians expressed shock and sadness at his death on Wednesday. “Ismail Haniyeh is the son of Gaza. He represents my entire people,” Ahmad Al Nims told a journalist working with CNN in Deir el-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip.

Another Gazan, Abu Yasser Hassoun, said the assassination had “struck” Palestinians “like a thunderbolt.” Palestinian analyst Mustafa Ibrahim told CNN that despite some disagreements, Haniyeh held a “special place among the Palestinians.”

Over the years, Haniyeh has participated in peace talks with former US President Jimmy Carter, and met with other world leaders including the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, and Chinese diplomat Wang Kejian earlier this year.

In April, Israeli air strikes killed three of Haniyeh’s sons and four of his grandchildren, according to Hamas.

At the time, Haniyeh insisted their deaths would not affect ongoing ceasefire and hostage talks. “Whoever thinks that by targeting my kids during the negotiation talks and before a deal is agreed upon that it will force Hamas to back down on its demands, is delusional,” he said.

How Haniyeh spent the months after Oct. 7

After he celebrated seeing his fighters return to the Gaza Strip with Israeli equipment in Hamas’ office in Istanbul, Turkey on October 7, Ismail Haniyeh spent the majority of his time in Doha as head of Hamas’ Political Bureau but took a number of trips to Tehran, Istanbul and Cairo, according to a CNN analysis.

CNN reviewed statements by Hamas and others, in addition to state media outlets and other social media posts, to analyze and track Haniyeh’s movements since October 7.

Haniyeh took at least four trips to Tehran – in November, March, May and July. During all four visits, he met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

In May, he attended the funerals of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who were killed in a helicopter crash.

On his final trip to Tehran, which ended with his assassination, he was attending the inauguration of the new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

He also took three known trips to Cairo in November, December and February, to lead Hamas’ ceasefire negotiating delegation. That negotiation process, which is still ongoing, has been shepherded by Qatar and Egypt.

The Hamas leader also spent two periods of time in Istanbul. He watched the October 7 attacks unfold in Hamas’ Istanbul offices. Video that circulated social media following the attacks show him celebrating after watching news reports of Hamas fighters returning to the Gaza Strip with Israeli equipment.

He returned home to Doha in October after the attacks, and took another 14 day-trips there in April.

While there in April, Haniyeh met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in addition to a number of Turkish politicians.

Haniyeh’s body will be buried in Doha on Friday, after funerals are held for him in Tehran on Thursday.

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