Argentina's GDP seen growing in Q4 after shrinking for six quarters

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina's economy is expected to have registered year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, ending six consecutive quarters of year-on-year contraction and further lifting it out of recession, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday.

The average forecast from 15 local and international analysts showed Argentina's gross domestic product (GDP) expanding 1.7% in the last three months of 2024.

"It's the first positive sign after six consecutive quarters of (year-over-year) contraction," said Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist and director of VDC Consultants.

Besmedrisnik said the positive expectations were boosted by Argentina's recent fiscal and trade surpluses and improved inflation outlook, although domestic and international risks loom.

The surveyed analysts' estimates varied between a minimum and maximum GDP growth of 1.1% and 2.2% respectively for the fourth-quarter.

However, analysts agreed that Argentina's annual GDP for 2024 as a whole will still show economic contraction, albeit at a lower level than previously expected.

A recent central bank survey of analysts forecast economic growth of 4.8% for 2025.

Argentina's national statistics agency will publish official GDP data for the fourth quarter on Wednesday at 4:00 p.m. local time (1900 GMT).

(Reporting by Hernan Nessi; Editing by Marguerita Choy)