ASML outlook bullish through 2030 due to AI boom -CEO says

By Toby Sterling and Nathan Vifflin

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) -Computer chip equipment maker ASML, facing the threat of more U.S.-led curbs on trade with China, is upbeat on sales growth over the next five years as a boom in AI fuels strong demand for the company's most advanced tools.

CEO Christophe Fouquet, speaking on Thursday at the company's investor day at Veldhoven in the Netherlands, said the company's sales growth would average 8% to 14% over the coming five years.

"When it comes to 2030, we are still very, very bullish," Fouquet told assembled investors and analysts.

He said the global chip market will grow 9% annually through 2025, passing the $1 trillion mark around 2030, with AI chips growing rapidly to make up 40% of the total.

That helps ASML because it means strong growth of cutting-edge logic and memory chips, which in turn means more demand for ASML's most advanced EUV product lines.

Chipmakers such as ASML's biggest customer TSMC of Taiwan, which manufactures AI chips for Nvidia, use ASML's EUV tools to create circuitry.

But ASML is banned from selling its EUV and most of its DUV lithography equipment in China following successive curbs by the U.S. and Dutch governments that began in Trump's first term.

In October, ASML said it expected China sales to fall to 20% of total sales after a contribution of more than 40% over the past six quarters.

ASML is still able to sell relatively older "dry" DUV product lines in China without restrictions.

Analysts said they were reassured by the company's guidance at the start of the investor day, when the group will also face questions on prospects for sales to China after Donald Trump was elected as U.S. president.

The company also forecast revenue of 44-60 billion euros ($46-$63 billion) by 2030, and gross margins of between 56% and 60%, unchanged from previous long-term guidance issued in 2022.

Analysts said that was also reassuring after third quarter earnings in October missed expectations by the most in years.

Customers such as Intel and Samsung delayed orders for equipment amid weakness in markets for consumer electronics, automotive and industrial chips.

"The first glance looks positive," said Kevin Wang of Mizuho Securities, adding that some investors had expected a cut in guidance. "Management remains bullish on ASML’s sales and profitability growth."

JPMorgan analysts said the lack of any surprise in the forecast was "a positive."

"Barring new government intervention on China shipments, the market can look forward to a better 2026. Good returns for patient investors," they wrote.

ASML's shares rose 6.1% to 665.60 euros at 1336 GMT in Amsterdam.

($1=0.9478 euros)

(Reporting by Toby Sterling and Nathan Vifflin; Editing by Clarence Fernandez, Mark Potter and Jane Merriman)