Bank of Korea to hold rates at 2.75% on April 17, assessing trade impact: Reuters poll

By Veronica Dudei Maia Khongwir

BENGALURU (Reuters) - The Bank of Korea will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 2.75% on Thursday, according to a Reuters poll of economists who expect the central bank to resume reductions in May.

If realized, this will be the central bank's second hold since it began its rate-cutting cycle in October. The previous hold was in January, when it paused to assess the impact of domestic political turmoil on the economy.

This time, policymakers are grappling with volatile currency moves and trying to gauge the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff war which is likely to be negative given exports account for nearly half of gross domestic product (GDP). 

Nearly two-thirds of economists, 24 of 37, polled April 8-14 expected the BOK to hold its base rate at 2.75% on April 17. The remaining 13 forecast a 25 basis point cut.

A strong majority, 27 of 30, predicted the rate would be 25 basis points lower by May, at 2.50%, with most expecting another quarter-point cut next quarter. That view is unchanged from a February survey.

"We expect the BOK to make a dovish hold decision at the April meeting while digesting the recent announcements on reciprocal tariffs and the 90-day pause on them, as well as the roller-coaster moves in the global markets," wrote Kathleen Oh, chief Korea economist at Morgan Stanley.

"At the same time, we think the recent hyper FX volatility will keep the BOK cautious against moving into a rushed cut. We see a further downward revision to the BOK's growth forecast as unavoidable at the coming meeting in May, given further developments on the trade conflict between the U.S. and China."

Last week's sudden announcement of a 90-day tariff reprieve by Trump provided some relief to the Korean won which sank to a 16-year low on April 9 - a level last seen when the country was recovering from the global financial crisis. 

Over half of economists who had forecasts through year-end said rates would finish 2025 at 2.25%, considered by some economists as the "neutral" rate which neither hinders nor stimulates the economy.

Nine forecast rates at 2.00% or lower, while three said 2.50%, highlighting the range of views on the rate outlook given so much uncertainty over trade.

"South Korea is one of the countries which is opting for active negotiation with the U.S. In this sense, it is likely for South Korea to see early waiver of tariffs compared to other countries," said Stephen Lee, chief economist at Meritz Securities.

"This does not mean BOK should stop cutting. The range and extent of tariffs were bigger than what everybody expected. It means that BOK would have to change its assumptions, alter their economic outlook, and be more proactive in terms of cutting rates."

   (Other stories from the April Reuters global economic poll) 

(Reporting by Veronica Dudei Maia Khongwir; Polling by Rahul Trivedi and Pranoy Krishna; Editing by Vivek Mishra, Ross Finley, Toby Chopra)