Bank of Mexico lowers key interest rate, leaves door open to future cuts

By Brendan O'Boyle

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -The Bank of Mexico on Thursday lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for a third straight meeting, underscoring progress on bringing down core inflation and signaling future rate cuts were possible.

The five-member governing board of Banxico, as Mexico's central bank is known, voted unanimously to cut the key rate to 10.25%.

Analysts polled by Reuters had overwhelmingly forecast the reduction, which comes a week after the Federal Reserve cut borrowing costs in the United States by a similar magnitude.

In a statement announcing its decision, Banxico noted the inflation outlook has improved while the closely watched core inflation rate, considered a good indicator for price trends, is expected to keep decreasing.

"Looking ahead, the Board expects that the inflationary environment will allow further reference rate adjustments," the statement said.

In October, core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, slowed to 3.80% in the 12 months through October, down from 3.91% in September. Meanwhile, annual headline inflation rate ticked up to 4.76% in October, from 4.58% in September.

Banxico targets headline inflation at 3%, plus or minus one percentage point.

"The board left the door open to further interest rate cuts over the coming months, but officials will be keeping a close eye on the peso – especially if the incoming Trump administration steps up its threats to impose tariffs on Mexico," said Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

Mexico's peso currency has weakened sharply over the past six months, as a series of post-Mexican election reforms shook investor confidence in the country's legal system, and as Donald Trump's U.S. election victory last week fuels uncertainty over the future of the critical bilateral trade relationship.

Alberto Ramos, head of Latin America research at Goldman Sachs, said the bank expects Banxico to deliver another 25-basis-point cut at its December meeting.

However, Ramos said "the bar to accelerate the pace of cuts to 50 basis points is relatively high given prevailing domestic and external uncertainty, in particular around a number of issues in the U.S.-Mexico bilateral agenda," namely concerning tariffs.

Banxico's board raised its forecast for average headline inflation in the fourth quarter, but still sees the rate converging to its target in the fourth quarter of 2025.

(Reporting by Brendan O'Boyle; Editing by Anthony Esposito and Jonathan Oatis)