Bills might be better, but Chiefs are favored for a reason

LAS VEGAS (AP) — The Chiefs are slight favorites to beat the Bills on Sunday and get a shot at winning an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl.

But that doesn't mean Kansas City is the better team.

“I agree with that,” CBS SportsLine handicapper Bruce Marshall said. “I think that might have been the case last year, but I don't think Buffalo is going to win.”

Marshall's reference was to last season's meeting when the Chiefs went to Buffalo and won the divisional playoff matchup 27-24.

One bettor at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas placed a $1.3 million money-line wager on the Chiefs, which would pay $1 million. Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel said other than that bet, the action has been active on both sides.

The Chiefs are favored by 1 1/2 points at Caesars, a number that has fluctuated between 1 and 2 points.

“In our internal power rankings, the Bills are definitely better that the Chiefs,” Feazel said. "But, obviously, Arrowhead (Stadium) in the playoffs, the history between these two teams, that is going to make a factor. We're not talking like this is a 3-point spread.

“I think it's similar to kind of how the Patriots were back in the day. (The Chiefs) just don't make mistakes, and that seems to be the difference maker in a lot of these games, so they're going to get the benefit of the doubt.”

BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Chiefs as 2-point favorites. BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said being at home is the primary reason Kansas City is favored.

“I do think the Bills are rated as the better team," Cipollini said. “Maybe just slightly.”

Few concerns about Hurts

Bettors don't seem to believe Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts will be significantly limited by a knee injury when Philadelphia hosts the Commanders in the NFC championship game.

The line at BetMGM opened at 4 1/2 points and moved up to 6 and has held steady.

“I think it's pretty rare that without an injury to get that amount of line movement in a conference (title) game,” Cipollini said. “... It seems like (Hurts) will be good to go. We didn't see any line movement (downward) off that, so it looks like somewhere around 6 is where we'll end up staying.”

That likely is the case at Caesars as well, which opened the line at 6 and kept it there.

“I'm seeing a lot of 6 1/2s out there, so I'm feeling a lot better to give Washington a shot,” Marshall said. “I think they've got a shot to win just because I think (Jayden) Daniels is so transcendent.”

Barkley expected to run wild

BetMGM set Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley's rushing total at 126 1/2 yards and moved it to 130 1/2.

“I can't remember when we've offered a higher rushing total in a game than that,” Cipollini said. “We're taking so far nothing but overs even at that 130, and I think that trend will continue. I think we could go to 140 and probably still take a bunch of overs, but the market consensus has us at about 130, so we'll stick there.”

Caesars didn't see quite as dramatic movement, with Barkley's number going up a yard to 127 1/2.

“He's Captain America right now,” Feazel said. “He's playing his best ball of his career. We'll all happy to see it here for the most part except for when they're endlessly coming in on Saquon. The number is certainly high, but it's warranted with how good of a season he's having.”

Allen driving many bets

There are plenty of opportunities to bet on Bills quarterback Josh Allen, and gamblers are taking advantage.

Cipollini said money is coming on whether he will score the first touchdown, will reach the end zone at all or will score at least two TDs. Allen's rushing total also went up 2 yards to 48 1/2.

Allen's had a similar increase in his rushing total at Caesars.

“I think that's really been a trend throughout the playoffs where Josh Allen kind of puts it in his own hands, especially in these bigger games," Feazel said.

Can Commanders keep going?

Washington won both postseason games on the road, beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round before defeating the top-seeded Detroit Lions.

“I haven't seen a team play with house money like this in a while, and that's exactly what they're doing,” Marshall said. “This is a lot of magic from Daniels. I mean this is (Patrick) Mahomes sort of stuff. That would be a great angle for a Super Bowl — Mahomes versus Daniels. The old Mahomes versus the new Mahomes. That's something I'd look forward to.”

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