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By Greta Rosen Fondahn and Maggie Fick
GDANSK/LONDON (Reuters) - Bank of America analysts on Friday said Novo Nordisk may miss first-quarter expectations, as sales of its blockbuster Wegovy and Ozempic drugs lag, which could prompt the Danish drugmaker to cut its 2025 guidance in its quarterly results.
BofA global research predicted in a note a 2% cut to the company's full-year sales guidance and expects a new sales growth range for the year of between 14% and 22%.
"1Q seems a possible miss on sluggish Ozempic/Wegovy trends, worse currency (impact) and possibly higher (selling, general and administrative expenses) needed for demand creation and to convince physicians that supply is back," BofA said.
Novo Nordisk, which has led the obesity drug market with its pioneering weight-loss injection Wegovy, in February forecast sales growth in local currencies between 16% and 24% in 2025.
Investors and analysts at the time said the guidance was "good enough" to ease nerves about competition from U.S. rival Eli Lilly, though some noted the range was wide.
Novo came under pressure last year to prove it could keep its advantage in the lucrative weight-loss market after Lilly launched its own injection Zepbound, which led to greater weight loss in clinical trials than Wegovy.
Investor worries have since intensified, and Novo Nordisk shares have fallen more than 25% so far in March, on track for their biggest monthly drop since July 2002, as market fears ramped up as to whether the company had lost its edge over its U.S. rival.
BofA on Friday forecast first-quarter sales to come in 1% to 2% below current market consensus, flagging "sluggish" trends for Ozempic and Wegovy.
Investors and analysts also see cause for concern in the closely-watched weekly U.S. prescription data for Novo's Wegovy and Lilly's Zepbound.
Barclays in a note on Friday said prescriptions of Wegovy fell 1.6% in the week ending March 21.
BofA maintained "buy" on the stock on Friday, with Novo Nordisk still a key participant in the GLP-1 drug market, but trimmed its price target to 910 Danish crowns ($131.35) from an earlier target of 1,075 crowns.
Out of the 28 analysts that cover Novo Nordisk stock, 20 rate it "buy", seven rate it "hold", and one "sell", according to LSEG data.
The drugmaker is set to report first-quarter results on May 7.
($1 = 6.9282 Danish crowns)
(Reporting by Maggie Fick in London and Greta Rosen Fondahn in Gdansk; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Nick Zieminski)
