Brewers' volumes disappoint as drinkers buy less beer

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By Emma Rumney, Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen

LONDON/COPENHAGEN (Reuters) -Two of the biggest brewers, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Carlsberg, sold less than forecast in the third quarter as consumers, particularly in China, cut their spending by drinking less or choosing cheaper beer. 

The world leader AB InBev's profits and revenues fell short of analyst expectations, sending its shares almost 4% lower as a $2 billion share buyback and a guidance raise failed to win over investors. 

Its volumes and revenues slipped by double digits in China, with other large territories the United States, Mexico and Europe also seeing volume declines. AB InBev cited lower consumer demand, and said sales in bars and restaurants in China were particularly slow. 

Beer makers had anticipated a rebound in margins and volumes this year, but sluggish economies and high inflation and interest rates have held customers back. Adverse weather and competition from cheaper, local rivals has added to the impact. 

The world's third biggest brewer Carlsberg, which makes beers including Kronenbourg 1664 and Tuborg as well as its namesake brand, saw volumes fall 1.3%, citing factors including a "very weak" consumer in China. 

PREMIUM AND MAINSTREAM

CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen told Reuters the company would, in the short term, adjust a strategy relied upon by brewers for years: developing and promoting more expensive brands, marketed as premium beers, to offset falling volumes.

"In markets where we are seeing a significant pressure on premium, we are reallocating some of our focus into making sure we are promoting properly around the right mainstream brands," he said. 

For the long term, Aarup-Andersen said he remained confident, and that pricier brews would account for a significantly larger portion of Carlsberg's portfolio in a decade. 

AB InBev's third-quarter statement highlighted stronger growth for its more expensive beers, like Corona, which grew 10.2% outside of its home market, Mexico, during the period. 

In China, however, where AB InBev's strategy is focused on its premium portfolio, revenues and volumes fell 16.1% and 14.2% respectively. It said this strategy "remains a compelling value creation opportunity". 

For some, the third-quarter performance in China raised questions for the maker of Budweiser and Stella Artois, particularly because rival Heineken, the world's No. 2 beer-maker, said it had significantly outperformed there. 

"Are they priced wrong?" Siphelele Mdudu, investment analyst at AB InBev investor Matrix Fund Managers, said of the brewer, adding if companies push too hard on prices or premium beers when drinkers are stretched, their customers may look elsewhere.

This may require brewers to reconsider the balance between more expensive and cheaper beers in their portfolios, he said.

Heineken's volumes rose 0.7% in the quarter, but it also flagged a challenging consumer environment and steep declines in markets such as Cambodia because of competition from cheaper local brands.

(Reporting by Emma Rumney in London and Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen in Copenhagen; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Mark Potter and Barbara Lewis)