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Can Vice President Harris win over key voters in the crucial Michigan race?

July 31, 2024

Detroit (CNN) โ€” For Charity Dean, the weight of the presidential race is suddenly a bit heavier as she moves beyond the exhaustion of a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump to a fresh start with Vice President Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

โ€œItโ€™s refreshing. Thereโ€™s a new energy that we didnโ€™t have previously,โ€ said Dean, who owns a coffee shop in northwest Detroit. โ€œFolks that were not interested in a Biden-Trump race are definitely interested now that we have the vice president on the top of the ticket.โ€

A week after Harris secured enough delegate support to effectively lock down the Democratic nomination, the whirlwind of excitement coursing through the party is giving way to the urgent work of building a Harris coalition โ€“ after spending a year trying to shore up Bidenโ€™s fraying one.

Can Vice President Harris win over key voters in the crucial Michigan race?
Can Vice President Harris win over key voters in the crucial Michigan race?

โ€œItโ€™s not just we have an opportunity to make history,โ€ said Dean, who also leads the Michigan Black Business Alliance. โ€œItโ€™s also, โ€˜Oh my gosh, what happens if we donโ€™t?โ€™โ€

Michigan will be a critical laboratory for how the Harris campaign builds and sustains its coalition and the degree to which it will look different from Bidenโ€™s winning 2020 alliance that he struggled to keep together this year, particularly with younger voters and voters of color.

Conversations with more than two dozen voters, party activists and Democratic officials in Detroit and the surrounding communities underscored a surge in interest toward Harris among women, voters of color and younger voters. Itโ€™s an open question how her support holds among independent voters and rank-and-file labor union members, particularly as Trump and Republican groups race to define her.

โ€œInstead of having something to vote against, now we have something to vote for,โ€ said Rev. Charles Williams, pastor of Historic King Solomon Baptist Church, who sounded the alarm months ago about a lack of enthusiasm among many voters for Biden, despite the achievements of his first term.

โ€œPre-Joe Bidenโ€™s announcement, we were stirring molasses,โ€ Williams said in an interview outside his church this week. โ€œPost-Joe Bidenโ€™s announcement, weโ€™re on a rocket ship.โ€

Battle for the โ€˜blue wallโ€™

Just 10 days into her presidential candidacy, Harrisโ€™ campaign is still ramping up โ€“ conducting a vice presidential vetting process on a short deadline, rewriting plans for next monthโ€™s Democratic National Convention in Chicago and beefing up advertising and fundraising teams after she raised $200 million in her first week.

Trumpโ€™s campaign, meanwhile, began unleashing a fresh wave of attacks on Harris on Tuesday with a $12.2 million television advertising buy across six battleground states, including Michigan. One new ad labels Harris the Biden administrationโ€™s โ€œborder czarโ€ and highlights her role in serving as the administrationโ€™s point person in terms of addressing the root causes of migration from Central America.

โ€œThis is Americaโ€™s border czar โ€“ and sheโ€™s failed us,โ€ a narrator says over video of Harris dancing at an event. The narrator describes the vice president as โ€œFailed. Weak. Dangerously Liberal.โ€

Trump won Michigan, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, in 2016 โ€“ cracking the Democratic โ€œblue wallโ€ of must-win-states. Biden won those states back four years later. And before his exit from the race, his campaign had identified the three states as his most realistic path to securing the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win this fall.

Though Harrisโ€™ appeal among women, voters of color and young people could expand the map and put in play Sun Belt battlegrounds โ€“ including, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, where Harris held a rally Tuesday night โ€“ the blue wall states are certain to be a focus for both Harris and Trump.

Thatโ€™s not lost on ardent supporters of the vice president like Dean, who named her coffee shop Rosa after her great-grandmother, someone who she said would be thrilled by the historic nature of Harrisโ€™ candidacy.

โ€œWe have a fear in our country because weโ€™ve seen racism and weโ€™ve seen sexism,โ€ Dean said. โ€œIโ€™ve heard a lot of comments about, well, will they vote for her? I said there is no โ€˜they,โ€™ it is us. And with that confidence and with that momentum, it becomes contagious.โ€

โ€˜A renewed sparkโ€™ in Dearborn

Though Harrisโ€™ candidacy is in its early stages, and Trumpโ€™s attacks are only beginning, some Michigan Democrats say the vice president has the opportunity to shed the skepticism many felt toward Biden.

In Michiganโ€™s Democratic presidential primary in February, more than 101,000 people โ€“ 13.2% of the primary electorate โ€“ cast their votes for โ€œuncommitted,โ€ rather than Biden, in what was largely seen as a show of opposition to the presidentโ€™s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

โ€œUncommittedโ€ won 57% of the vote in Dearborn, home to large Arab American and Muslim communities, to Bidenโ€™s 40% โ€“ an outcome that served as a glaring warning sign in a Democratic stronghold in the must-win swing state.

Though Harris will have to tread carefully over the war in Gaza to avoid undermining Biden โ€“ and her statements, choice of running mate and more will play roles in how she is judged โ€“ she could win back some voters in communities that have largely broken with Biden.

Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, who supported the campaign to lodge โ€œuncommittedโ€ protest votes during the primary, said he sees a potential opening for Harris.

โ€œWth Vice President Harris, you see a renewed spark,โ€ Hammoud told CNN, โ€œespecially amongst a younger population, a more diverse coalition and an opportunity to rebuild that coalition that helped put President Biden over the top.โ€

Asked whether he would support Harris and encourage others in his community to do the same, Hammoud said it was too early to say. He said he wanted to hear more from Harris โ€“ amplifying on her empathetic comments about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza following a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week โ€“ and wouldnโ€™t likely reach a decision without a conversation with her or her foreign policy advisers.

โ€œIt really falls down to the values and priorities. That has not changed for me,โ€ he said. โ€œIโ€™m hopeful that Vice President Harris will chart a new course.โ€

โ€˜Quite the roller coasterโ€™

Here in Michigan, the contours of the new race are settling in, which Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens heard first-hand as she knocked on doors in her Oakland County district north of Detroit.

A blue and white sign in bold letters, โ€œDump Trump,โ€ was planted in a front yard only a few houses down from one that read, โ€œMichigan for Trump. Make America Great Again.โ€

โ€œI do think youโ€™re seeing people activated in a new way,โ€ Stevens said.

While many residents werenโ€™t home โ€“ or didnโ€™t answer their doors โ€“ Stevens forged ahead until she found two cars in the driveway and the lights on inside a white, two-story house.

โ€œHow are you feeling about the switch from Biden to Harris?โ€ Stevens asked.

โ€œI feel good,โ€ replied Reuben Maxbauer, who held his young son in his arms as he answered the door. โ€œIf the last seven days are representative of the next 100 days, it will be quite the roller coaster, but very exciting.โ€

But Maxbauer, who has family members living in Israel, said he wanted to learn more about Harrisโ€™ positions, especially on the Middle East.

โ€œI donโ€™t think she has a clearly enough defined position, at least that weโ€™re aware of,โ€ he said, โ€œthat I can say whether she makes us comfortable or not.โ€

As she continued her walk, Stevens acknowledged that is one of the lingering challenges for Harris and Democrats in Michigan โ€“ a critical balancing act of foreign policy and domestic politics.

โ€œWhere weโ€™re standing, every vote really matters Every conversation carries a lot of weight,โ€ Stevens said. โ€œBut Iโ€™m not going to sugarcoat. Thereโ€™s also still a lot of passions and tensions and emotions around the Middle East.โ€

But in the closing three months of the race, Stevens said, Trump may end up a unifying force โ€“ for Democrats too.

โ€œI think thatโ€™s what weโ€™ll see happen,โ€ she said. โ€œI really do.โ€

The-CNN-Wire
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