Fact check: Nine Trump false claims about Canada

Washington (CNN) — President Donald Trump keeps saying he wants Canada to become the 51st US state. To support his pitch, he keeps making false claims about Canada.

In 2025 alone, Trump has:

• Falsely said the Canadian public likes the idea of becoming the 51st state, which the Canadian public overwhelmingly opposes
• Falsely said the US trade deficit with Canada is “$200 billion,” though it is nowhere close
• Falsely said Canada is one of the world’s highest-tariff countries, though it is actually low in global rankings
• Falsely said Canada hiked its dairy tariffs during the Biden administration, though they haven’t changed since Trump’s first presidency
• Falsely said Canada generally doesn’t “take” US agricultural exports, though Canada is the world’s second-biggest buyer of those exports
• Falsely said Canada prohibits US banks, though more than a dozen US banks are operating in Canada today
• Falsely said Canada is “constantly surrounded” by Chinese and Russian ships, though this is fiction
• Falsely said outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was using the ongoing tariff battle to run again for prime minister, though Trudeau clearly wasn’t running
• Falsely said Canada spends less than 1% of gross domestic product on defense, though NATO figures showed it was an estimated 1.37% last year

Here is a fact check of these false statements.

Canadians’ views on becoming the 51st state: Trump falsely claimed to reporters in January that “the people of Canada like” his idea of Canada joining the US. In fact, poll after poll has shown the idea is massively unpopular with the people of Canada – one recent poll had 85% opposed, 9% in favor – and it has been vehemently rejected by Canadian political leaders from left to right.

The US trade deficit with Canada: Trump has repeatedly said the US has a “$200 billion” trade deficit with Canada. That’s not even close to true. Official US statistics show the 2024 deficit with Canada in goods and services trade was $35.7 billion. Even if you only count trade in goods and ignore the services trade at which the US excels, the deficit was $70.6 billion.

Canada’s tariffs: Trump falsely claimed in a social media post Tuesday that Canada is “ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD.” In fact, Canada has long had relatively low tariffs, though it has this month announced a series of new retaliatory tariffs on the US in direct response to Trump’s own new tariffs on Canada. Canada was just 102nd-highest on a World Bank list of 137 countries’ trade-weighted average tariff rates in 2022 – and had a lower average (1.37%) than the United States (1.49%) that year, the most recent for which the data is available.

Canada’s dairy tariffs: Trump falsely claimed to reporters Friday that he had Canada’s dairy-tariff situation “well taken care of” at the time he left office the first time, “but under Biden, they just kept raising it.” In fact, Canada did not raise its dairy tariffs during the Biden administration. The tariffs Trump is denouncing were left in place by the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement he signed in 2018, though that agreement did secure greater US access to the Canadian dairy market.

Trump has also persistently failed to mention that Canada’s high dairy tariffs only kick in after the US has hit a certain Trump-negotiated quantity of tariff-free dairy sales to Canada each year – and as the US dairy industry acknowledges, the US is not hitting its zero-tariff maximum in any category of dairy product, so the tariffs aren’t being applied.

Canada’s imports of US agricultural products: Trump, speaking of Canada, claimed to reporters in February that “they don’t take our agricultural product for the most part”; he mentioned dairy, then said, “A little bit they do, but not much.” This is false even with Trump’s qualifiers. Canada was the world’s second-largest buyer of US agricultural exports in 2024, according to the US Department of Agriculture, purchasing about $28.4 billion worth.

While Canada does limit foreign access to its dairy, egg and poultry markets in particular, these are exceptions rather than the rule. The US Department of Agriculture notes on its website that “almost all” US agricultural exports to Canada face zero tariffs or quotas, and that “Canada consistently ranks among our top markets for agricultural product exports, representing one of our most significant and reliable trading partners.”

Canada and US banks: Trump falsely claimed in both February and March that Canada prohibits US banks. While Canada’s tight regulations have discouraged many foreign banks from opening retail branches there, Canada does not forbid these banks; in fact, US banks have been operating in Canada for well over a century. The Canadian Bankers Association industry group said in a February statement that “there are 16 U.S.-based bank subsidiaries and branches with around C$113 billion in assets currently operating in Canada” and that “U.S. banks now make up approximately half of all foreign bank assets in Canada.”

Canada, Russia and China: Trump falsely claimed in a January social media post that Canada joining the US would secure Canada “from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them.” Canada has never been surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships, let alone been “constantly” surrounded. In fact, a smattering of Russian and Chinese military ships and jets, as well as Chinese research vessels viewed with suspicion by Canada and the US, have been occasionally spotted in recent years in the vicinity of the US state of Alaska – and have been monitored or intercepted by the Canadian and US militaries.

The Canadian government did warn in December that among the “potential threats” in its Arctic region were “increased Russian activity in Canadian air approaches” and “China’s regular deployment of dual-use – having both research and military application – research vessels and surveillance platforms to collect data.” But that’s not the same as being “surrounded.”

Trudeau and the trade war: Trump said in a social media post Thursday: “I think that Justin Trudeau is using the Tariff problem, which he has largely caused, in order to run again for Prime Minister.” Trump framed this as his own thought, but it was clearly false nonetheless. Trudeau’s successor as Liberal Party leader and prime minister was set to be chosen in a party vote three days following this Trump post; Trudeau did not compete in the leadership race after announcing in January that he would step down after the new leader was chosen.

Canada’s defense spending: Trump falsely claimed in January that Canada spends “less than 1%” of GDP on defense. Official NATO figures show Canada spent an estimated 1.37% of GDP on defense in 2024, up from an estimated 1.31% in 2023 and from 1.2% in 2022. That’s all short of NATO’s 2% target, which incoming prime minister Mark Carney has vowed to meet by 2030, but not as low as Trump claimed.

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