Fed's Collins sees steady Fed as tariffs push up inflation risks

By Michael S. Derby

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said Thursday that large trade tariffs now being pursued by the Trump administration will almost certainly drive inflation higher and depress growth, at least in the near term.

Such an environment presents challenging trade-offs for the central bank on interest rate policy, as it seeks to balance out keeping price pressures steady while buoying the job market, Collins said in the text of a speech prepared for delivery before an event at Georgetown University in Washington.

“I see monetary policy as well positioned to address a wide range of potential economic outcomes in this highly uncertain environment,” Collins said. “Maintaining the current monetary policy stance seems appropriate for the time being,” she added.

But with all the uncertainty, it’s hard to say how policy and the broader economy will fare. In the near term, monetary policy will have to manage upside inflation risks and downside threats to growth, Collins said. It will be particularly important for the Fed to keep inflation expectations from rising much, she added.

While Collins expects inflation to ease back to the Fed’s 2% target over the longer haul, in the near term the official said her bank estimates that core inflation levels could go “well above” 3% on Trump’s import tax surge, even as those policies remain a work in progress and subject to change.

Given how much uncertainty there is, “monetary policy will need to be nimble,” Collins said.

“It might still be appropriate to lower the federal funds rate later this year,” she said, while adding “renewed price pressures could delay further policy normalization, as confidence is needed that the tariffs are not destabilizing inflation expectations.” The official also said with inflation high, “the signal would have to be compelling to take preemptive actions against the risk that activity weakens by more than expected.”

Collins’s views on the outlook came as financial markets have undergone huge swings as Trump has announced massive tariffs only to walk back part of them. A number of banks believe Trump’s actions will end what had been a very strong economic expansion and could even threaten appetites for U.S. investments.

The bleak outlook has also driven traders and investors to price in a course of Fed rate cuts, even as Fed officials continue to talk about the importance of keeping inflation pressures at bay.

(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)