LA Post: Seven takeaways from the elections in Wisconsin and Florida

(CNN) — Wisconsin voters on Tuesday delivered Democrats their biggest boost since President Donald Trump returned to power, handing liberals a state Supreme Court majority and defying Elon Musk’s record-shattering effort to bolster a conservative Trump acolyte.

Liberal Susan Crawford defeated conservative Brad Schimel, winning a 10-year term and retaining the 4-3 liberal Supreme Court majority in a state bitterly divided between a Democratic governor and Republican legislature, where the nominally nonpartisan high court has often functioned as a third, tie-breaking partisan body.

The race was an early — but useful — gut check of the electorate in one of the nation’s marquee swing states more than two months into Trump’s second presidency.

Crawford’s win also fits into a broader picture of Democratic gains in the small number of contests held since Trump took office. Republicans on Tuesday held onto two House seats in ruby-red Florida districts, but saw the huge margins they’d won there in November shrink significantly. A week earlier, a Democratic candidate scored an upset win in a Pennsylvania state Senate seat in a stretch of Republican-leaning suburbs and farming communities.

The biggest elections remaining on 2025’s calendar come in November, when Virginia and New Jersey elect new governors.

Here are seven takeaways from Tuesday’s elections in Wisconsin and Florida:

Wisconsin rebuffs Trump

Stakes were already high, with control over the Supreme Court in a critical presidential battleground on the line in Wisconsin.

Neither were on the ballot, but Badger State voters were weighing in on Trump (who won Wisconsin in 2016, lost it in 2020 and won it again in 2024, all by slim margins), Musk, and their performance so far.

But the race took on national significance when Trump endorsed Schimel, the conservative candidate, and Musk — the tech billionaire-turned-White House adviser — poured tens of millions of dollars into the race and traveled to the state himself.

“I never could have imagined that I’d be taking on the richest man in the world for justice in Wisconsin. And we won,” Crawford said at her victory party.

The outcome is certain to bolster the spirits of Democrats who are out of power and ideologically splintered after November’s losses. It’s also an ominous sign for Republicans who are entering a midterm election cycle without Trump on the ballot, and one that comes before the effects of Trump’s management of the economy — including tariffs — are fully felt.

Musk’s millions

Aided by Musk’s millions – along with infusions of cash from billionaires of both parties – the Wisconsin race quickly became the most expensive judicial contest in US history as both parties wrestled for control of the court’s majority in a key swing state.

But Wisconsin voters voted against Schimel, the candidate preferred by Trump and Musk.

Crawford and her allies worked to turn the election in a referendum on Trump and Musk, in particular. The tech billionaire, together with aligned groups, pumped some $20 million into the race and thrust himself into the center of the election with an appearance – complete with a foam cheesehead – at Sunday rally in Green Bay that Schimel himself skipped.

Trump endorsed Schimel in the final weeks of the campaigns, but did not stump on his behalf, and the result underscored the challenge Republicans faced in persuading voters who backed the president less than five months ago to turn out again for a judicial election in which he was not on the ballot.

“There’s about 200,000 voters who voted for Donald Trump last November, who just historically don’t vote in spring elections,” Scott Walker, the state’s former Republican governor, said on CNN after the race was called for Crawford Tuesday night.

With Crawford’s win, liberals will retain their 4-3 advantage on the high court and have final say on key issues looming before the justices, ranging from abortion to voting rules – and potentially – redrawing congressional maps that currently give Republicans in the state 6 out of 8 House seats.

Musk’s high-profile gamble – and loss – in Wisconsin raises questions about the effectiveness of his money and brand moving forward as he works to help Republicans next year attempt to buck the trend of the president’s party losing ground in the midterms.

The Tesla CEO has previously committed to send $100 million to support Trump-controlled political groups, a source familiar with the plans confirmed. And he recently donated directly to a clutch of House GOP members who have voiced support for impeaching judges who thwart Trump’s executive moves.

Democrats involved in House races say Musk’s role – and the controversy surrounding his effort to slash federal spending as part of the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency – will remain a focus in elections ahead. (Some ads from pro-Crawford groups featured images of Musk wielding a chainsaw this year at a gathering of conservative activists and sought to tie him to cuts to programs that benefit the poor and elderly.)

“He’s good foil,” a Democratic strategist involved in House races said of Musk. “Trump is a good foil in many ways, but at the end of the day, a lot of people voted for Trump. Nobody voted for Elon Musk and especially the outsized role he has played.”

Wisconsin adds voter ID to state constitution

A GOP-backed referendum to enshrine Wisconsin’s voter ID requirement in the state Constitution passed overwhelmingly Tuesday, even as voters kept the state Supreme Court in liberals’ hands.

Wisconsin voters have been required to present a photo ID when requesting an absentee ballot or voting in person since 2011. But Tuesday’s referendum will make it harder for any future Democratic majority in the state to repeal those laws and protect the requirement from legal challenges.

Supporters of voter ID laws argue that they prevent fraud and maintain trust in election integrity. Opponents say they make it harder for some – especially low income and disabled voters – to cast ballots and have been used to disenfranchise people. Democrats urged voters to oppose the measure, as did nearly two dozen civil rights groups, including the Wisconsin chapters of the ACLU and the League of Women Voters.

But despite the opposition, voter ID laws are popular in the state. A February Marquette University Law School poll found that 73% of Wisconsin voters supported adding the voter ID requirement to the state Constitution.

Wisconsin proves it’s a purple state

Schimel’s loss is an embarrassment for Trump – and an even costlier one for Musk. But it’s too soon to say what it means for Wisconsin’s political future.

For years, Wisconsin Democrats have worked to claw their way back to power after being hammered by former Republican Gov. Scott Walker. In recent years, those efforts have started to bear fruit.

Two years after Trump broke the Blue Wall in 2016, Democrat Tony Evers defeated Walker in 2018. President Joe Biden won the state in 2020, Evers won re-election in 2022 and liberals won control of the state Supreme Court in 2023.

Flipping the state Supreme Court sent shockwaves through the state and led to new maps that allowed Democrats to flip a handful of state legislative seats last year. But it did not preview a blue wave in the state in 2024: though Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin won re-election, Trump narrowly won the state by about 30,000 votes.

In other words: Wisconsin rejected Trump and Musk Tuesday, but it is still a purple state.

Even Tuesday’s vote hinted at the nuanced political views in the state. Crawford’s victory, in the face of millions in spending by Musk and Trump’s endorsement of her opponent, came courtesy of the same voters who enshrined voter ID in the state Constitution.

One thing is clear: Republicans will need to rely on more than Trump’s support and Musk’s money to succeed in the state in 2026.

GOP’s growing margins

For House Speaker Mike Johnson, wins by Republicans Jimmy Patronis in Florida’s 1st District and Randy Fine in the 6th District mean more breathing room to advance Trump’s agenda.

Johnson’s House majority is so slim that Trump was forced to pull his nomination of New York Rep. Elise Stefanik for US ambassador to the United Nations to avoid a special election in a solidly red district.

“We have a slim margin. We don’t want to take any chances. We don’t want to experiment,” Trump said last week.

Losses in Florida would have ignited full-blown panic on Capitol Hill — and made Johnson’s task of keeping together an ideologically fractured caucus even more difficult.

The GOP averted that potential disaster. But the smaller-than-expected margins during Tuesday night’s special elections could still leave congressional Republicans nervous, and are likely to serve as a wake-up call for those representing even nominally competitive districts.

Democratic overperformance in Florida

Although Republicans won both special elections in Florida and shored up their party’s narrow majority in the House, the races grew more competitive than expected in the stretch to election day with the Democrats raising significant sums.

And Tuesday’s results offered some warning signs for the party. In districts Trump won by at least 30 points less than five months ago, both Democratic contenders cut those margins by roughly half, early results show.

Fine, in Florida’s 6th District, won by fewer than 14 percentage points after being outraised 10-to-1 by his Democratic opponent Josh Weil, a teacher.

“Congratulations Randy, a great WIN against a massive CASH AVALANCHE,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform Tuesday night.

For GOP incumbents in battleground seats seeking reelection next year, the narrow margins in these deep-red Florida districts could serve as a potential warning sign of a tough midterm environment if Democrats are able to sustain their enthusiasm in opposition to Trump, Musk and the Republican agenda.

Trumpification of Florida

A year after his public and contentious civil war with Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came to an end, Trump once again made clear who controls the GOP in his home state.

Trump dictated the outcome of the Republican races to replace Gaetz and Waltz with his endorsement – elevating two candidates in Patronis and Fine who had loose ties to the districts they were tapped to represent. No matter, both sailed to victory in their primaries. Despite the closer-than-expected outcomes Tuesday, he now has two loyalists in Congress who owe their ascension almost entirely to Trump.

DeSantis, meanwhile, declined to endorse both Trump-backed nominees, didn’t lift a finger to help the GOP maintain its majority and trashed Fine as an objectionable candidate just as Republican panic over the race was reaching a crescendo.

Fine and Patronis will now migrate to Washington where Trump has orchestrated a Florida takeover of federal government by leaning on Republicans who two years ago backed the president over their home state governor during the Republican presidential primary. His chief of staff, Susie Wiles, is a former DeSantis operative as is top White House political adviser James Blair. Trump named Waltz his National Security Adviser and the state’s ex-Sen. Marco Rubio as his secretary of state. When the nomination for Panhandle Republican Gaetz to lead the Department of Justice faltered, Trump turned to Florida’s former attorney general, Pam Bondi. Some of Trump’s top fundraisers are Sunshine State lobbyists who are leveraging their connections to sign up a roster of clients looking to sway the new administration.

Publicly, Trump and DeSantis remain on solid terms. But the latest touchstone in their ongoing rivalry comes as the president is already looking to leave his mark on next year’s gubernatorial race in Florida. Trump made an early endorsement of Rep. Byron Donalds even as DeSantis’ wife, Casey DeSantis, has taken steps toward her own race to succeed her husband.

Tuesday’s results make clear Trump’s brand remains strong with the state’s base. Republicans credited Trump’s late involvement for the surge of support for Fine on Election Day that ultimately carried him over the finish line. So did the Democrat.

“The President of the United States had to break into his schedule,” Weil said, “to drag (Fine) across the finish line.”

This story has been updated with additional details.