Goldman maintains copper price forecasts, says tariffs will avert US glut

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Wednesday maintained its London Metal Exchange copper price forecasts for the next year, and said it expected the implementation of U.S. tariffs on copper imports to prevent a U.S. stock glut in the third quarter.

Goldman forecasts three-, six-, and twelve-month LME copper prices at $9,600, $10,000 and $10,700 per metric ton respectively. The bank flagged a near-term downside risk to prices from a trade policy update due to take effect on April 2.

Benchmark three-month copper on the LME was down 1.7% at $9,944 a metric ton as of 1048 GMT. [MET/L]

U.S. copper futures hit a record high on Wednesday, expanding their premium over the London prices with rising bets on the level of import tariffs that U.S. President Donald Trump may impose on the metal.

Last month Trump ordered a probe into potential new tariffs on copper imports to rebuild U.S. production of the metal critical to electric vehicles, military hardware, power grids and many consumer goods.

"With the possibility of earlier tariff implementation, we now expect U.S. stocks to decline by 30-40 kt/month from mid-to-late Q2 onwards," the note said.

"Thus, we avoid a stock glut in the U.S. in Q3 2025, when we expect global copper market tightness to be most pronounced."

It added that greater certainty on copper tariffs means COMEX is likely to trade at a higher premium to LME.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Jan Harvey)