How the fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal could unravel

(CNN) — It’s only three weeks into a fragile ceasefire, and Israel and Hamas are each ratcheting up allegations that the other party has violated the deal.

So far, 16 out of 33 hostages scheduled for release in the current phase of the agreement have been freed by Hamas, and 656 Palestinian prisoners from a list of nearly 2,000 have been released by Israel. But the weekly exchanges may now be disrupted after Hamas accused Israel of violating the agreement and said it would postpone Saturday’s hostage release “until further notice.”

Israel has hit back, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying late Tuesday that the Gaza ceasefire will end if Hamas does not release hostages as planned on Saturday.

“If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon - the ceasefire will end, and the IDF will return to intense fighting until Hamas is completely defeated,” he said in a video statement.

US President Donald Trump, whose envoy helped mediate the agreement along with officials from Egypt and Qatar, has suggested dismissing the multi-staged approach of the deal altogether and giving Hamas an ultimatum to release all the hostages at once.

While some Israeli politicians have endorsed Trump’s ultimatum, Netanyahu has not explicitly agreed to it – instead issuing an ambiguous statement.

In his statement on Tuesday, he “welcomed President Trump’s demand,” but didn’t specify how many hostages should be released.

“If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire will end, and the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) will return to intense fighting until Hamas is completely defeated,” Netanyahu said in a video statement.

Here’s what each side is saying, and where the deal could go from here:

Hamas says Israel violated the deal

On Monday, Hamas threatened to postpone the next hostage release, accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire deal by targeting Palestinians with gunfire in various parts of Gaza, delaying the return of displaced people to the heavily bombarded north, and not allowing the agreed humanitarian aid to enter the enclave.

The militant group also accused Israel of delaying the entry of essential medicines and hospital supplies, as well as not allowing tents, prefabricated houses, fuel, or rubble-removing machines into Gaza.

On Tuesday, the Gaza health ministry said that 92 people in the enclave had been killed in Israeli military operations since the ceasefire came into effect.

CNN has asked Israeli authorities for comment on the allegations regarding casualties.

A diplomat with knowledge of the ceasefire talks told CNN that the United Nations, Qatar and other countries had requested to deliver temporary shelters to Gaza but Israel turned them down.

Aid agencies say that delivery of aid needs to be accelerated. Doctors Without Borders said Wednesday that “humanitarian needs remain huge. We’re still not seeing the scale up of aid needed.”

The World Food Programme says it hopes to double the amount of bread being provided in northern Gaza within the next few days. However, it said that there is still not enough food inside Gaza to meet the immense needs, and a massive influx of humanitarian and commercial food products is needed.

Abu Obeida, a spokesman for Hamas’ armed wing, said in a social media post on Monday: “We affirm our commitment to the terms of the agreement as long as the occupation commits to them.”

In a later statement, Hamas added that there was still an opportunity for the release to go forward as planned, saying that Israel has sufficient time “to fulfill its obligations.”

Israel says delay is ‘complete violation’ of deal

Hamas’ postponement is a “complete violation of the ceasefire agreement and the deal to release the hostages,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Monday.

The Israeli agency responsible for enabling aid to enter Gaza, COGAT, told CNN Tuesday that Hamas’ claims about ceasefire violations were completely false, adding that hundreds of thousands of tents have entered Gaza since the beginning of the agreement, as well as fuel, and generators.

Katz said he instructed the military to “prepare at the highest level of alert for any possible scenario in Gaza.” The Israeli military also said it was raising the level of readiness in southern Israel and that it would reinforce the area to enhance its “readiness for various scenarios.”

And Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said Tuesday his country is “prepared for the fact that Hamas may try to attack Israel.”

Those announcements also come after Israeli forces opened fire on Sunday in the eastern areas of Gaza City, close to the Gaza border, killing three Palestinians, Palestinian authorities said. The incident happened close to the border fence near Nahal Oz, an Israeli kibbutz, or agricultural commune. Following that incident, Katz said: “Anyone who enters the buffer zone, their blood is on their own head – zero tolerance for anyone who threatens IDF (Israel Defense Forces) forces or the fence area and communities.”

Doubts about the future of the deal also follow Israel’s condemnation of the gaunt, frail appearance of the hostages released last week as “shocking.” Many of the remaining Israeli hostages are believed to be in even worse condition, Israeli government officials told CNN on Tuesday.

What did Trump say?

President Trump has urged Israel to “let all hell break out” and cancel the ceasefire and hostages deal if Hamas does not return those still being held in Gaza by Saturday.

“As far as I’m concerned, if all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock – I think it’s an appropriate time – I would say, cancel it and all bets are off and let hell break out,” the president told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday.

Trump added that all hostages ought to be returned, not two or three “in drips and drabs,” which is the phased manner of releases outlined in the deal.

Pressed on what “all hell” might entail in Gaza, Trump said, “You’ll find out, and they’ll find out – Hamas will find out what I mean.”

Trump and his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff are part of the team that helped broker the ceasefire, which was finalized with cooperation between the Biden and Trump camps just before the new administration took office.

The US president went on to say that Palestinians would not have a right to return to Gaza under his plan to take US ownership of the enclave and rebuild it.

Trump also told reporters on Monday: “I think a lot of the hostages are dead.” More than 30 of the hostages are dead, according to Israel.

On Tuesday, during a meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah, Trrump expressed doubt as to whether Hamas would meet the Saturday deadline.

How likely is the ceasefire to hold?

In short, no one knows.

It took about a year of negotiations to reach the current deal. The first ceasefire, in November 2023, lasted about a week.

Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Tuesday said there will be a “complete occupation of the Gaza Strip,” if Hamas fails to release hostages as planned. He called on Netanyahu to cease essential services to Gaza including electricity, water, fuel and aid, unless Hamas releases hostages on Saturday.

The families of hostages held in Gaza have, however, urged the prime minister to stick to the ceasefire agreement.

“Prime minister, you made the decision to bring all our hostages home through an agreement. We must not go backwards,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement Tuesday.

The current agreement is set up to progress in three distinct phases, the first of which is already halfway through.

As well as the release of 16 hostages so far, phase one has seen the entry of more humanitarian aid and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from parts of Gaza. The Israeli military has retained its presence along Gaza’s borders with Egypt and Israel.

Israel has to date released around a third of the nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners agreed for the exchange, some of them held without charge, and others facing life sentences.

Following Israel’s withdrawal from a key militarized zone dividing Gaza, Palestinians began returning to what’s left of their homes in the heavily bombarded north. The “overwhelming destruction of homes and communities in the north” has left people without viable shelter, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, which has said “the need for food, water, tents and shelter materials in that area remains critical.”

Meanwhile, negotiations for the second and third phases have barely started.

An Israeli delegation was sent to Doha, Qatar, on Sunday, but an Israeli official told CNN that the team would not be discussing the second phase of the deal, adding that Netanyahu was planning separately to hold “a security-political cabinet meeting” this week regarding the second phase.

Netanyahu waited until last weekend – one week after a deadline for further ceasefire talks – to send his delegation to Qatar. Israeli media has speculated that he is simply running out the clock until phase one of the deal expires on March 1.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a key member of Netanyahu’s coalition, has threatened to quit the government if Israel doesn’t return to war after the first phase of the truce.

Qatari and Egyptian mediators are engaging with Israel and Hamas to solve “current issues” and ensure adherence to the agreement, a diplomatic source familiar with the matter told CNN.

CNN’s Jeremy Diamond, Abeer Salman, Kareem Khadder, Lauren Izso, Mostafa Salem, Tim Lister, Becky Anderson, Mick Krever, Kevin Liptak, Donald Judd, Dana Karni and Mohammed Tawfeeq contributed to reporting.

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