Global air travel chaos caused by Heathrow closure may last days and cost hundreds of millions in losses

(CNN) — With London’s Heathrow Airport shut Friday, global air travel is expected to be disrupted for days, potentially costing the airline industry hundreds of millions of dollars.

The chaos in air travel caused by a fire at an electrical substation supplying the airport could last days, according to aviation experts. Heathrow’s closure is expected to affect more than 1,300 flights in the coming days, and airline analytics firm Cirium estimated that “upwards of 145,000” passengers could be affected.

Shukor Yusof, founder of Singapore-based Endau Analytics, an advisory firm that focuses on the aviation industry, told CNN the financial losses from the shutdown could be in the “hundreds of millions of pounds.”

The fallout “will cause chaos, undoubtedly, for the weekend and into next week because they have to resolve all those flights that couldn’t come in, all those problems that have piled up because of this shutdown,” he said.

Heathrow was the world’s fourth-busiest airport in 2023, according to the most recent data, with a record-breaking 83.9 million passengers passing through last year.

John Grant, senior analyst at travel data provider OAG, estimates that it will take up to four days for the flight disruptions to fully resolve, he told CNN.

Likewise, Cirium said: “The impact of this incident can cascade over several days as aircraft, crew, passengers are out of place, with limited spare aircraft and seats available to recover passengers.”

Airlines rely on precisely coordinated networks to ensure planes and crews are in the right place at the right time. Now, dozens of carriers must rapidly restructure their operations to reposition aircraft and staff.

Yusof at Endau Analytics said a closure like this could affect entities and people beyond airlines and travelers. It’s a “whole network of people involved” in running the operations of an airport and adjacent areas, ranging from retailers, cargo firms, jet fuel suppliers and surrounding communities that depend on the airport for their livelihoods, he added.

“At the moment, I think that the real focus is how to mitigate the impact of the airport closure on airlines and also on the people who work there,” Yusof explained, as it could take days, or even weeks, for airlines to clear the backlog of passengers.

Shares of airlines operating out of Heathrow tumbled Friday.

British Airways owner International Airlines Group sank as much as 5% early morning local time, before paring losses to trade 2.2% down on the day by mid-afternoon. Compensation for travelers is likely to be the largest immediate cost for the airline, analysts at Jefferies, an investment bank, said in a note.

Shares in Germany’s Lufthansa were down 2.1% by the same time, while Air France-KLM had fallen 2.5%. Shares in Australian airline Qantas closed 2.4% down.

British Airways canceled all short-haul flights to Heathrow Friday but said it had been given clearance by Heathrow Airport “to depart eight of our long-haul flights today from 7pm.”

All customers booked for travel to or from Heathrow between Friday and Sunday will have the option to rebook for free for a later travel date, according to the airline.

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