In razor-tight Uruguay election, fringe votes could tip the balance

By Lucinda Elliott

MONTEVIDEO (Reuters) - Uruguayans will be choosing between two centrist candidates for their next president on Sunday, but the closely fought run-off could be decided by voters who went for an anti-vax radical and other fringe candidates in the first round.

Final opinion polls ahead of the ballot suggest there are just 25,000 votes between the two candidates, opposition center-left mayor Yamandu Orsi and conservative ruling coalition candidate Alvaro Delgado.

That means voters who cast their ballot for candidates eliminated in October's first round will be key. Those candidates include anti-establishment Gustavo Salle, who rails from a megaphone against vaccines, corruption, and gender identity, and wants to protect the environment. He did better than expected in the first round with a 3% showing.

Uruguay bucks the global trend of sharp right-left divides seen in many countries in what has been a bumper 2024 election year.

The South American nation of 3.4 million people heads to the ballot box on Nov. 24 with a popular president, inflation coming down and both employment and real salaries on the rise. But longstanding concerns over high living costs, inequality and violent crime persist.

President Luis Lacalle Pou from Delgado's National Party constitutionally cannot run for immediate re-election.

"There are few indications that voters are clamoring for significant political change," said Uruguayan analyst Nicolas Saldias of the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Broad consensus between the two sides on issues like the economy meant the leading candidates struggled to capture the public's imagination, Saldias added.

Both runoff contenders are hoping to attract the roughly 8% of first-round voters who went for smaller parties like Salle's, as well as those who failed to turn out in October.

But neither has made new pledges in the final weeks to appeal to them and pollsters say a televised debate appears to have had little effect.

Salle, whose party secured two congressional seats, said he would not tell his supporters who to vote for.

"I'm not a general who gives orders," the 66-year-old lawyer told Reuters. But he said Orsi might garner more backing, given his left-leaning policies like protecting workers' rights and the environment.

Salle has encouraged his followers to cast a protest vote against the "klepto corporatocracy," and spoil their ballots.

EVERY VOTE COUNTS

Orsi, who has pledged a "modern left," won 43.9% of the October vote for the Broad Front and will face Delgado, who secured 26.8% but also has the backing of the smaller Colorado Party that together with his National Party made up almost 42% of votes.

Neither coalition has an absolute majority in the lower house following October's elections, potentially limiting more radical proposals being approved. But the Broad Front won 16 of 30 Senate seats, which Orsi argues places him in a better position to lead the government.

"I'm not sure about either of them," said 23-year-old musician Nathaniel Valls from Montevideo, who voted for Salle in the first round.

"I see Orsi as more committed to his proposals," Valls said.

Javier Gonzalez, 54, who voted for the greens in the first round, said he would now support Delgado's center-right coalition.

If more Uruguayans abstain or spoil their ballots, the center-right coalition was more likely to benefit, analyst Saldias said.

Orsi's Broad Front needed to gain more fresh votes than the coalition if they had hope of a victory, he said.

(Reporting by Lucinda Elliott. Editing by Christian Plumb and Rosalba O'Brien.)