In Ukraine and Gaza, Trump finds out that ending wars is tougher than it looks

(CNN) — President Donald Trump is finding out that campaign trail bravura over peace deals can’t yield quick wins as wars rage.

As Trump made the tiniest of steps forward Tuesday on his peace plan for Ukraine, another ceasefire, for which he claimed personal credit, shattered. Israel launched a new onslaught on Hamas in Gaza, killing hundreds of civilians.

The US president’s call with a largely intransigent Russian President Vladimir Putin as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to full-scale war highlighted two leaders whose own political priorities will likely supersede his own.

Such is the unpromising geopolitical atmosphere standing in the way of Trump’s dream of a legacy as a global peacemaker, which he’d predicted would be fulfilled as soon as he returned to the Oval Office.

There are growing signs that Trump’s goals go beyond ending the fighting with equitable peace that can be sustained.

Readouts of his chat with Putin only reinforced the fears of Ukraine’s government and its European allies that Trump sees the war as a sideshow to his wider quest of a rapprochement with Moscow. This leads him to see the conflict through a Russian lens. And it explains why he berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky until he signed up for Trump’s 30-day ceasefire plan, but had only praise for Putin when he refused to buy in on Tuesday.

Washington’s acquiescence in Netanyahu’s return to bombarding Gaza, meanwhile, ends efforts by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff to secure the release of hostages and a second-phase deal toward ending a war that is an impediment to the administration’s top goal — a historic peace deal between Israel and Arab states. But a new US air offensive against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen also suggests Trump is now focused on another goal — cranking up pressure on the Islamic Republic to force it into talks on its nuclear program, or to further weaken its regional proxies ahead of a possible Israeli or US strike on its nuclear facilities.

Back in power, Trump has rebuked US allies in Europe and made expansionist claims against Canada, Greenland and Panama. But the biggest foreign policy question so far in his second term is when or if he’ll be willing to apply pressure on either Putin or Netanyahu. His transparent ambition to win the Nobel Peace Prize may depend on it.

Trump insists a peace deal with Russia and Ukraine will happen soon

The White House was upbeat about the president’s phone call with Putin. But the main takeaway was Russian pushback against a US idea for an immediate ceasefire.

The Russians did agree to halt on attacks on Ukrainian energy and infrastructure targets, the White House said. And Ukraine also signed on. But the White House’s use of the word “ceasefire” oversold the 30-day pause in this limited area. There’s no impediment to Russia continuing to pound other frontline and civilian targets in Ukraine. Indeed, the Ukrainians said Tuesday night that Moscow sent a drone barrage against a hospital in the Sumy region.

A Russia readout of the talks differed subtly from the US version, for instance referring to “energy infrastructure” – suggesting a narrower view of the deal than the US understanding.

Still, the administration insists that this is just the first step and that talks will now take place in the Middle East on reaching a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea and a full ceasefire and a permanent peace.

“It was a very good call,” Trump said renewing his bluster that only he could have pulled off such a feat and predicting fast progress soon, despite Putin’s fresh roadblocks. “If I wasn’t here, he would never do it,” he said of the Russian leader in an interview with the Washington Examiner.

“The next thing would be a full ceasefire and a deal,” Trump said. “I think it will go pretty quickly.”

There’s a case for talking up incremental steps at the start of a peace process to create a sense of momentum and to increase the price for the warring parties if they walk away. So Trump’s optimism may not be misplaced. But his self-congratulation may be a political attempt to disguise the failure of his full ceasefire push, given the reality that Putin is in no rush to make peace considering his recent success on the battlefield. The US president also seems to be trying to preserve the increasingly fragile conceit that he’s an unparalleled deal-maker who is already racking up huge foreign policy wins.

Still, the president did secure one of the first undertakings to slow the intensity of fighting since the Russian invasion three years ago. If he does manage to forge peace, it will be a huge achievement that will save thousands of lives.

But his personal credibility is on the line – and relies on a Russian leader who has consistently broken agreements and ceasefires and has out-maneuvered every US president of the last quarter-century.

No amount of positive spin could disguise Putin’s refusal to sign up for the US plan for a 30-day full ceasefire. And the Russian president instead delivered a new set of conditions that would be impossible for Ukraine to agree to and will fuel European fears that a peace on the Kremlin’s terms would sow the seeds for a future war.

“To put it in very simple terms, Putin rejected the proposal that was put on the table,” William Browder, the head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign, who is one of Putin’s most prominent international critics, said on CNN International,.

Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is Trump’s friend but also one of Zelensky’s top supporters, was even more scathing. “What a surprise — Putin rejects an unconditional ceasefire,” Johnson said in a post on X. “He wants to keep bombing and killing innocent Ukrainians. He wants Ukraine disarmed. He wants Ukraine neutralised. He wants to make Ukraine a vassal state of Russia. He isn’t negotiating. He’s laughing at us.”

A Kremlin readout of the conversation with Trump said Putin called for a “complete cessation of providing Kiev with foreign military aid and intelligence.” This is a shrewd request and an attempt to convince Trump to take steps he’s already taken – briefly – to force Ukraine to agree to the ceasefire after Zelensky’s disastrous visit to the Oval Office. The Russian president is also trying to drive a wedge between Trump and Western European powers, who would be horrified by a halt to aid to Ukraine that could leave it exposed to Russian forces after a peace agreement.

A US-Russia deal that is less than it looks

Putin’s agreement to halt attacks on energy infrastructure reflects his desire to avoid alienating Trump – and looks like a concession. But even this may be less than it seems – and may represent yet another carrot to Russia. Beth Sanner, a former senior US intelligence official, explained on “CNN News Central”: “What have they agreed to? The very thing that Ukraine has been successful right now (during) this war has been striking all of Russia’s energy infrastructure. So, picking that one thing is a win.” Sanner added, “These are Kremlin terms; these are not American terms. This is definitely Putin driving this agreement.”

Both the Kremlin and the White House also offered some clues about deeper goals behind their engagement over Ukraine.

They both mentioned that the two leaders discussed broader global issues, including nuclear proliferation, and conjured a vision of a new relationship featuring economic deals from which they could benefit. This underscores Trump’s goal of ushering Putin back onto the global stage – in a way that would avoid him paying a price for the unprovoked and illegal invasion of a sovereign democracy. The convergence of the two governments was a remarkable reminder of how Trump spurns US allies and has embraced a sworn enemy of the United States.

In the White House readout, officials noted that the leaders “shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel.” This was one potentially significant hint since one goal of a US rapprochement with Russia could be to pull Russia away from its increasingly close ties with Tehran, which is part of a tightening informal network that also includes other US foes North Korea and China.

Like Putin, Netanyahu has political goals

The breakdown of the ceasefire in Gaza shows the limitations that the administration has so far faced in converting initial peace breakthroughs into more lasting agreements. This is a trend that could augur ill for the Ukraine peace process.

Many US observers have long believed that Netanyahu never wanted to move beyond the recently elapsed first stage of a ceasefire deal to end a war that erupted after the Hamas massacre of Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023.

Tuesday was the deadliest day in over 15 months in Gaza, according to a CNN tally, after Israeli forces struck multiple targets. More than 400 people were killed, Palestinian authorities said.

Netanyahu said he launched new attacks because Hamas refused to release remaining hostages or accept a US proposal to extend the Gaza ceasefire, despite a pause in Israel’s military activity. Hamas, however, insisted that it had not rejected the US proposal and that it wanted to see the ceasefire prolonged. But the hardline Islamic group also had little incentive to release the remaining living hostages, who represent a final, callous bargaining chip in a conflict that Netanyahu promises will only end when the group has been eradicated.

“This is only the beginning,” the Israeli prime minister said Tuesday.

Netanyahu, who has been on trial for corruption, reaped immediate political gains for his decision to reignite the war. Far-right Israeli politician Itamar Ben-Gvir said he’d rejoin the government along with his Otzma Yehudit, or Jewish Power, party. This shored up the Likud prime minister’s political position ahead of a difficult set of budget negotiations that could threaten the longevity of his government.

The return to warfare also meant that Netanyahu’s corruption trial was postponed temporarily. Many of the prime minister’s critics believe that he’s deliberately prolonged the war in Gaza to forestall a case that could see him sentenced to jail time if he is convicted.

Like Putin, for whom the Ukraine war has become an existential cause, Netanyahu may need to keep war raging to solidify his hold on power. But Trump, their fellow strongman, has his own massive political incentives for silencing the guns.

Sooner or later, the US president may face tough political choices that he’s so far put off.

The-CNN-Wire
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