Indian IT earnings likely to stutter in fiscal 2026 on US spending woes, analysts say

By Haripriya Suresh and Bharath Rajeswaran

BENGALURU (Reuters) - India's information technology companies, among the worst-performing sectors this year, may not see a recovery in fiscal 2026, analysts said, after Accenture flagged weak discretionary spending and demand in its quarterly report.

Accenture, the world's largest IT services player and a bellwether for the Indian IT industry, warned on Thursday that spending on discretionary projects in the quarter "was still constrained" and flagged no meaningful increase in client budgets.

Escalating global trade tensions following fresh U.S. tariffs on trading partners has sparked concerns over a slowdown in the United States - a key market for Indian IT companies.

"Whatever has happened in the last two months has created a higher level of uncertainty in terms of how the first half of fiscal 2026 will pan out and what impact it will have on the FY26 recovery rate," Amit Chandra, deputy vice president at HDFC Securities, told Reuters.

India's IT index is currently down 15.3% so far this year and is set for its worst quarter since June 2022. Top firms such as TCS, Wipro, Infosys and HCLTech lost between 11.2% and 18.1% this year.

Analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said softening demand recovery and weak mega deal flow in fiscal 2025 will result in lower incremental revenue from mega deals in fiscal 2026 for Indian Tier-1 IT. "Companies will also face net headwinds from early stages of gen AI adoption," they said.

Citi Research has estimated that IT companies in its coverage could see revenue growth of 4% in fiscal 2026, similar to fiscal 2025, while Morgan Stanley expects growth assumption to be hurt due to subdued client spending.

According to Chandra, while banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) and healthcare verticals showed signs of recovery, the last two months' uncertainty has meant that clients across sectors are "going into a wait-and-watch mode", and can likely curtail spends.

Accenture also largely flagged delays and cancellations of new contracts in the U.S. due to the Trump administration's moves. However, while "Indian IT has limited exposure," according to Citi analysts, this can "increase competitive intensity in other segments".

(Reporting by Haripriya Suresh and Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)