Inflation in Poland at 4.1% in 2025, central bank survey shows

WARSAW (Reuters) - Average annual inflation in Poland will amount to 4.1% in 2025, and it will then slow to 3.2% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, according to forecasts published on Monday in the central bank macroeconomic survey.

Inflation stood at 4.9% year-on-year in March, statistics office data showed.

The experts surveyed also expect a slowdown in the pace of economic activity in 2026-2027, and the central forecast predicted that gross domestic product growth would amount to 3.3% and 3.1% respectively, compared with 3.5% in 2025.

"Respondents to the macroeconomic survey expect the average annual NBP reference rate to be between 5.35% and 5.71% this year, with the central forecast being 5.57%," the National Bank of Poland said in the report.

In 2026, according to the central forecast, it is expected to be 4.52%, and 3.74% in 2027.

The main reference interest rate has remained at 5.75% since October 2023.

The MPC meets this week and will announce its decision on Wednesday, but none of the analysts surveyed by Reuters expects an interest rate cut in April.

The some MPC members said that the easing of monetary policy might begin in the second half of the year, after the publication of the central bank's inflation projection in July.

The March round of the macroeconomic survey was conducted between March 13 and 25, 2025. Twenty-two external experts representing financial institutions, analytical and research centres, as well as business and employee organizations, took part, the NBP reported.

(Reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz; editing by David Evans)