Iowa relies on exports and its senior senator opposes tariffs. Trump is pressuring both

FORT MADISON, Iowa (AP) — A woman in southeast Iowa wasted no time when the floor opened for questions at Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley 's public meeting Tuesday, asking about the impact the Trump administration's trade war could have in this export-dependent state.

“My son has cattle,” she said in the crowded city hall chambers of Fort Madison, a Mississippi River port and railroad hub that typifies Iowa's export economy. “I just want to know how the tariffs will affect someone like him, market-wise.”

Grassley hedged, suggesting Trump's trade policy could benefit producers if countries relax their import rules on U.S. beef or hurt them if they don't. But he finished by hinting at the most serious issue for Iowa. “I think it's more grain than livestock," he said.

Trump’s tariffs are likely to cost Iowa farmers their biggest market, China, for the hundreds of millions of bushels of soybeans they grow every year. And it's put Grassley, an anti-tariff warrior, in a difficult spot in a state inordinately dependent on agricultural exports as the nation's second-leading soybean producer.

Despite 45 years in the Senate and his party in power at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, Grassley is joined by only a handful of his fellow Republicans in an effort to curtail future tariffs by Trump and subsequent administrations.

Grassley proposed a bill this month with support from both parties that would require presidents to justify future tariffs to Congress but would not affect the measures Trump has put in place. The Constitution gives Congress the responsibility of setting taxes and tariffs, but lawmakers have ceded much of that power over import taxes to the president over the past 60 years.

However, the White House issued a statement last week to congressional leaders that Trump would veto Grassley’s measure if it passed, effectively killing it. The White House argued it would hamper the president’s ability to conduct foreign policy and pursue national security.

American farmers sold nearly $13 billion worth of soybeans in China last year, accounting for more than half of all the soybean exports worldwide and dwarfing the next largest markets of the European Union and Mexico.

Iowa follows only Illinois in soybean production and, in 2023, was second only to California in agricultural export sales, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Trump has imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese imports. China has responded by slapping 125% tariffs on all U.S. imports.

Farmers can try to sell some of their soybeans in other countries, but that may be difficult given that Trump has imposed 10% tariffs on most countries and threatened much higher reciprocal tariffs. So this year’s crop may pile up until farmers can find a buyer, and likely at a lower price.

The experience from Trump’s first trade war with China in 2018 gives farmers plenty of reasons to worry. Soybean exports to China fell from $12.2 billion in 2017 to $3.1 billion in 2018 after Trump imposed tariffs, and China retaliated.

Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley defended Trump's record as he addressed more than 700 activists Saturday at a fundraiser for the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, an influential player in Iowa's leadoff Republican caucuses every four years.

“What is President Trump doing every single day? He is restoring our economy,” Whatley said.

Finishing their chicken and potatoes, the audience waited for Whatley to finish before a polite wave of applause swept the suburban Des Moines hall.

“There’s going to be some short-term pain,” said Ray Darin, a retired Iowa State University professor who voted for Trump and attended the fundraiser. “We worry about the trade economy in Iowa. We worry about exports.”

Bonita Bappe was a bit more hopeful. She suggested she thought Trump was using tariffs to intimidate China. “I don’t think it’s going to be as bad as people think,” Bappe, also of Ames, said while leaving the fundraiser. “Because I think he’s using this to even out the situation. To fight back. I think he’s using it as a bargaining chip.”

The White House says 15 countries have sought to negotiate lower tariffs on their country. If Australia, which blocks U.S. beef not born, raised and slaughtered in the United States, relaxes those barriers, the tariffs might benefit more U.S. beef producers, Grassley said.

“Through the increasing of tariffs, bringing people to the table, and bringing things down, President Trump with his tactics are going to be more successful” than previous trade efforts, Grassley told reporters after the meeting that drew roughly 100 into the tight council chambers.

Though Grassley did not attend the Saturday fundraiser, he appeared via video and, in closing, was a little more candid to his fellow Iowa Republicans than he was with his audience in Fort Madison.

"If they work, I’ll say, ‘Amen,’" he told the crowd. “If they don’t work, I’ll say, ‘I told you so.’”

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Beaumont reported from Clive, Iowa; Funk reported from Omaha.