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By Rafal Wojciech Nowak
(Reuters) -German speciality chemicals maker Lanxess said on Thursday it expected full-year 2025 earnings to be impacted by slow economic growth and a high likelihood of politically triggered economic turbulence.
Lanxess attributed the cautious outlook to the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East and trade policy changes in the United States. President Donald Trump has imposed a variety of blanket tariffs on several countries since his inauguration, and threatened further levies going forward.
Metzler Bank analyst Thomas Schulte-Vorwick said the guidance was "relatively conservative" because it did not include any potential positive impact from the new German government's spending surge or a possible Ukraine peace deal.
"However, the first quarter and first half as a whole are more likely to be characterized by increased geopolitical uncertainty and investment restraint, especially in the US," Schulte-Vorwick said.
Lanxess fell 5.6% in pre-market trade.
Germany's chemical industry has struggled to grow since 2023, with inflation driving up production costs and hurting customer demand. Early signs of recovery in 2024 faded by the half-year point as the country's industrial outlook deteriorated.
Lanxess also said it expected the chemicals industry to face challenges in 2025, particularly in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa regions.
This outlook echoes sentiment from Germany's chemicals association VCI, which recently lowered its 2025 sector forecast, blaming geopolitical uncertainty. VCI has said it does not anticipate a recovery before 2026.
Lanxess forecast earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) pre exceptionals between 600 million and 650 million euros ($654 million and $707 million) for 2025, including the pro-rata contribution of Urethane Systems.
Vara Research analysts had expected the company's 2025 EBITDA pre exceptionals to reach 674.8 million euros.
($1 = 0.9198 euros)
(Reporting by Rafal W. Nowak; Editing by Richa Naidu)
