New York grid operator warns of undersupply in 2033

NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York City is at risk of power shortfalls starting in the summer of 2033 as rising electricity demand butts up against a shrinking supply of fossil-fired generation, the state grid operator said on Thursday.

Statewide, the trend of shutting power plants faster than bringing on clean new supply at the same time electricity use surges from the electrification of buildings and transportation, along with data centers and chip manufacturers, is threatening the grid's reliability, the New York Independent System Operator said.

Starting in summer 2033, New York City could suffer a power deficit by as much as 17 megawatts for one hour and 97 MW for three hours in summer 2034 during peak demand, NYISO said in its biennial reliability report. Power deficits can lead to blackouts or forced electricity conservation.

Bringing on new power generation, increasing energy efficiency and completing transmission line projects could thwart any shortfalls, NYISO said.

New U.S. transmission lines, however, are often delayed by permitting and lawsuits.

If planned transmission projects, including the Champlain Hudson Power Express, don't enter service on time, the country's most populous city could see shortfalls as early as 2026, the report says.

The 340-mile (545-km) Champlain transmission project, which would bring 1,250 megawatts of electricity generated from Canadian hydropower to New York City, is scheduled to enter service in the spring of 2026.

A projected switch in the long-held pattern of peaking electricity in the summer to the winter, as more heating systems in buildings turn electric, also raises reliability concerns, the group said.

(Reporting by Laila Kearney; editing by Jonathan Oatis)