Ryanair beats profit forecast on improving fares, trims traffic outlook

By Conor Humphries and Joanna Plucinska

DUBLIN (Reuters) -Ryanair reported better than expected profits for the final three months of 2024 on Monday and Chief Executive Michael O'Leary said he was "cautiously optimistic" about fares for the coming summer on constrained capacity in Europe.

But the airline, Europe's largest by passenger numbers, was forced to cut its passenger traffic forecast for the second time in three months due to Boeing aircraft delivery delays.

The Irish airline saw fares fall 10% over its two summer quarters, in part due to a dispute with online travel agents which has been largely resolved. That improved to an average increase of 1% in the three months to Dec. 31, Ryanair's third quarter.

The company reported after-tax profit for the quarter of 149 million euros ($156 million), well ahead of the 60 million euros forecast in a company poll of analysts.

"For the summer this year ... modest, cautious optimism is where we should be," with bookings running about 1% ahead of where they were this time last year and pricing "modestly up", O'Leary told an analyst call.

He said he was hopeful of recovering some or all of an 8% fall in fares seen in the last nine months of 2024. "It all looks okay. It doesn't look bumper. It looks fine."

Ryanair said it was "cautiously guiding" for after-tax profit in the 12 months to March 31 in a range of 1.55 billion euros to 1.61 billion euros. Its shares were up 3% at 1140 GMT.

BOEING DELAYS

Ryanair said it expects to take delivery of nine Boeing 737 MAX aircraft ahead of its peak summer season, fewer than expected, and as a result will cut its forecast for passenger numbers in the 12 months to March 31, 2026, to 206 million from 210 million.

An earlier forecast of 215 million was cut in November.

The final 29 aircraft of Ryanair's 210 MAX order will arrive by March next year, lifting traffic to 215 million passengers in the year to March 2027, O'Leary said.

Chief Financial Officer Neil Sorahan, who recently returned from a trip to Boeing's production facilities in Seattle, said the delays were disappointing but that he had a "strong level of confidence" that the nine aircraft would arrive on time.

O'Leary, who was in Seattle with Sorahan, later added that he expects Boeing to produce 38 737 MAX jets per month by the end of the summer, and possibly up to 42 by October, subject to U.S. Federal Aviation Administration approval.

While Boeing doesn't disclose production figures, the planemaker said in October that before its strike it was preparing to hit a target of 38 737 jets per month by the end of 2024.

In January 2024, then FAA chief Mike Whitaker imposed the 38 plane-per-month production cap after a door panel missing four key bolts flew off a new Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9. President Donald Trump's nominee to head the U.S. Transportation Department said he would keep the cap.

($1 = 0.9564 euros)

(Writing by Conor Humphries; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips, Jan Harvey and Mark Potter)