Social Democrat leader expects to become Lithuania's PM after election win

By Andrius Sytas

VILNIUS (Reuters) -The leader of Lithuania's main opposition Social Democrats said on Monday she expected to become the next prime minister of the frontline NATO member state after her party won most votes in Sunday's parliamentary election.

The Social Democrats won 19% of the vote, according to final partial results, just ahead of Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte's centre-right Homeland Union on 18% and the anti-establishment Nemunas Dawn on 15%.

If they take power, Vilija Blinkeviciute's Social Democrats are expected to maintain a tough stance towards Russia, including higher defence spending, while also seeking to improve fraying public services and taxing the wealthy more.

Asked if she expected to lead the next government, Blinkeviciute told reporters: "I have no doubts."

Blinkeviciute said she was already in coalition talks with two other left-leaning parties.

Outgoing premier Simonyte said a new government led by her party remained a possibility, though political analysts played down the likelihood of her party remaining in power.

"We are at too early a stage to say which party will have the initiative to create the next coalition," Simonyte told reporters on Monday.

Half of Lithuania's parliament is elected by popular vote with a 5% threshold to win seats. The other half is chosen on a district basis, with most districts' top two candidates facing a runoff vote on Oct. 27.

Simonyte said the results of the runoff vote would determine the likely make-up of the next government.

But Homeland Union lacks allies in parliament for a new majority after one of her junior coalition partners failed to meet the 5% threshold to enter parliament, said Mazvydas Jastramskis, a political analyst with the Institute of International Relations and Political Science.

"The (coalition) party failure has removed any chance for Simonyte to stay on as a Prime Minister", said Jastramskis.

The election campaign was dominated by domestic issues, especially the soaring cost of living, but national security remains a major concern for Lithuania, which is part of the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union.

The Baltic state of 2.9 million people strongly supports Ukraine in its war with invading Russian forces.

The Social Democrats' deputy leader, Gintautas Paluckas, has suggested boosting defence spending to 5% of national output from over 3% this year as Lithuania upgrades its military.

(Reporting by Andrius SytasEditing by Terje Solsvik and Gareth Jones)