South Korea makes surprise rate cut as Trump trade risks loom

By Cynthia Kim and Jihoon Lee

SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea's central bank delivered a surprise interest rate cut on Thursday and signaled more to come, as economic growth faltered and policymakers turned a wary eye to trade risks from a second Donald Trump presidency.

The Bank of Korea cut benchmark interest rates for a second straight meeting to 3.00%, an outcome only four of 38 economists polled by Reuters foresaw. The bank's seven-member board voted five-two for the cut.

Governor Rhee Chang-yong said three board members were open to further easing in the next three months as the return of former president Trump clouds the outlook for South Korea's export-reliant economy.

"Exports competition with major countries looks to be intensifying while we also took note of uncertainties ahead on the trade environment after Trump's election victory," Governor Rhee said in a news conference after the decision.

Thursday's rate cut was the first back-to-back rate cut since early 2009 as policymakers sought to revive growth now that inflationary pressures seem to have come under control.

Asia's fourth-largest economy faces risks of higher tariffs while it's biggest trading partner China could potentially face tariffs of up to 60%.

South Korea registered a record trade surplus of $44.4 billion with the U.S. in 2023, bigger than that for any of its other trading partners.

For President Yoon Suk Yeol's government, Trump's election has also added urgency to safeguard key growth engines, including the local chip industry.

On Wednesday, the government announced plans to bolster support for local chipmakers, to help an industry that could face unfavorable policies from the upcoming Trump administration.

"Although there were two dissenters, the fact that they had three board members who are open to near-term cuts meant Rhee practically signaled more cuts are on the way, especially as he placed some emphasis on supporting growth," said Ahn Jae-kyun, an analyst at Shinhan Securities. He sees the BOK cutting again in the first quarter.

South Korea's economy barely skirted a technical recession in the third quarter, expanding just 0.1% after an earlier contraction, as a recovery in private consumption slowed and exports stalled.

The government is considering drawing up a supplementary budget early next year to counter slumping consumer spending and slowing economic growth, local media reported last week.

Asked if the bank was ready for further downward pressure on the won, Asia's worst-performing currency this year, Rhee said he would work with the government to stabilize forex market as needed.

Policymakers in New Zealand, Canada and Sweden have also lowered their benchmark rates by more than 100 points in recent months.

The BOK downgraded forecasts for both growth and inflation this year.

It cut 2024 growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.4% previously. For next year it sees the economy expanding 1.9%, weaker than its 2.1% outlook before.

It also sees consumer inflation at 2.3% for this year, slower than 2.5% forecast previously.

South Korea's policy-sensitive three-year treasury bond futures rose as much as 0.22 points to 106.63 after the press conference, while the won weakened.

(Additional reporting by Joyce Lee; Editing by Sam Holmes)