Trump says tariffs on Mexico and Canada ‘could go up,’ declines to rule out possible recession

(CNN) — President Donald Trump said tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico planned for April 2 “could go up,” and would not predict whether the United States will have a recession in 2025.

In an interview that aired on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures With Maria Bartiromo,” Trump said reciprocal tariffs would go into effect on April 2 and the one-month reprieve granted to Mexico and Canada was a “little bit of a break.”

In February, Trump announced 25% tariffs on the United States’ neighboring countries. Those were delayed for a month and imposed on Tuesday, until Trump decided on Wednesday to pause tariffs on automakers for another month. He again changed course on Thursday, pausing tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the USMCA free trade treaty until April.

“It’s a transition into April and after that, I’m not doing this. I told (automakers), ‘Look, I’m going to do it this one time,’” said Trump.

But Trump has continued to make changes to tariff plans. On Friday, he threatened new tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy products. Those tariffs could go into effect on Monday.

After Trump announced the latest one-month pause on most tariffs, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum decided to hold off on retaliatory tariffs. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said that Canada’s retaliatory measures will remain in place.

But Trudeau said in a press conference Thursday that these policies risk a trade war between Canada and the United States for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Trump’s promised 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will go into effect Wednesday and tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber products will “start on April 2.”

Lutnick indicated the tariffs that go into effect on April 2 will continue until Trump is “comfortable” with how both countries are handling the flow of fentanyl, comments that seemed to be echoed Sunday by National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett on ABC News’ “This Week.” Hassett said Trump’s back-and-forth tariff moves were part of “a drug war, not a trade war,” aimed at curbing the flow of fentanyl into the United States.

“What happened was that we launched a drug war, not a trade war, and it was part of the negotiation to get Canada and Mexico to stop shipping fentanyl across our borders, and as we’ve watched them make progress on the drug war, then we’ve relaxed some of the tariffs that we put on them because they’re making progress,” Hassett said.

Hassett claimed Canada is a “major source” of fentanyl imports, despite Canada being responsible for just 0.2% of illegal imports of the drug into the United States.

Trade tensions and signs of slowing growth have led to worries that a recession could be looming. When asked by Bartiromo if he was expecting a recession in 2025, Trump said, “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we are doing is very big.”

Trump added that the transition “takes a little time” and “it’s going to be great, ultimately, for the farmer.”

The Conference Board’s latest consumer survey showed the share of respondents expecting a recession in the coming year jumped in February to a nine-month high.

“The kinds of changes that are occurring under Trump are arguably unprecedented, and it’s making people very nervous,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, told CNN. “If confidence continues to fall for another three months, and consumers actually pack it in, then game over.”

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