USAID’s extremely uncertain future risks global aid efforts, especially in Ukraine

(CNN) — The future of US foreign aid is at a moment of extreme uncertainty after the Trump administration announced it has terminated more than 90% of the US Agency for International Development (USAID)’s foreign assistance awards.

The news, disclosed in a court filing Wednesday, comes amid the administration’s efforts to dismantle USAID.

Even before the announcement to layoff approximately 2,000 of the agency’s employees and to put the majority of its remaining staff members on leave, the agency’s global aid efforts had largely stalled due to a sudden and sweeping freeze on existing and future foreign assistance.

In January, Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a memo directing that suspension, with only a few exceptions for 90 days, to review foreign aid programs — leading to widespread confusion, grinding humanitarian work around the world to a halt, and severely impacting humanitarian organizations.

Rubio said last week that the State Department has “issued over 250 waivers” to allow work to continue, but there is little evidence that those waivers have had an impact on the ground.

Now, the administration said it has completed the review and terminated approximately 5,800 USAID awards and 4,100 State Department awards were terminated, the court filing said.

While more than 20 agencies help deliver US foreign aid, USAID is the main provider, managing 61% of the more than $71 billion in US foreign aid spent in 2023, according to data from ForeignAssistance.gov.

Dismantling USAID has the potential to significantly affect US aid to Ukraine, which has been by far the biggest recipient of USAID funds since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022.

According to the agency’s now defunct website, USAID has provided Ukraine with a total of $37.6 billion in humanitarian aid, development assistance and direct budget support since the full-scale war began.

USAID funding for Ukraine was around nine times what the agency spent in Ethiopia, the second-largest recipient in 2023. Overall, more than a third of USAID spending was directed to Ukraine in 2023.

Increases in aid to Ukraine has transformed how USAID allocates its funding. For years, health was the largest funded category, with a majority of it directed toward addressing the global AIDS crisis. But in 2023, governance funding – which includes support for institution building, good governance, and macroeconomic stability in conflict zones – surpassed health funding for the first time in at least a decade.

That year, Ukraine received a total of $16 billion from USAID — $14.7 billion of which was categorized as governance funding to help the country rebuild amid Russia’s invasion.

Over the last decade, though, Africa received the largest share of USAID spending – about a third of total funding from 2014 to 2023 – primarily for health and humanitarian assistance.

The United States is also the largest donor to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, which directly supports the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) launched by President George W. Bush in 2003. PEPFAR finances 70% of the overall global AIDS response, according to the United Nations.

Rubio said that the State Department has issued a waiver from the foreign aid freeze for PEPFAR.

As of 2024, PEPFAR has saved 26 million lives from HIV/AIDS and enabled 7.8 million babies to be born HIV-free to mothers living with HIV.

US foreign aid agencies typically partner with various organizations rather than carrying out projects directly. In 2023, USAID delivered around $25 billion to multilateral organizations, including financing the World Food Program’s emergency food aid in Ethiopia and Syria, and the World Bank Group to support Ukraine’s government.

USAID also directly employed approximately 10,000 staff, and roughly two-thirds of those roles are posted overseas. Following the agency’s suspension and foreign aid freeze earlier this year, contracts were terminated for many aid workers abroad involved in USAID-funded programs. In Ethiopia, thousands of public health worker contracts have lost their jobs, a UNAIDS official said.

Workers in refugee camps along the Thai border with Myanmar are struggling to provide medical assistance for children. Almost all aid efforts worldwide that depend on US funds have stalled, according to USAID staff and contractors who have spoken to CNN, with no one working to manage programs and communicate with partners.

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