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By Saeed Azhar
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Wall Street banker bonuses rose 31.5% to an average $244,700 last year as dealmaking rebounded, but the boom times may wane as economic uncertainty rises, New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said on Wednesday.
Deals have slowed this quarter as companies navigate changing policies from President Donald Trump's administration, including tariffs and personnel changes atop regulatory agencies.
"This financial market strength is good news for New York's economy and our fiscal position, which relies on the tax revenue it generates," DiNapoli said in a statement.
"However, increasing uncertainty in the economy amid significant federal policy changes may dampen the outlook."
He told a media briefing later that it is too soon to project how bonuses will fare in 2025 or whether this uncertainty will affect jobs.
"It's way too soon to tell," DiNapoli said, citing the volatility in the markets, the probability of a recession happening in response to federal policy, potential federal cutbacks and tariffs.
JP Morgan's chief economist said earlier this month there is about a 40% chance of a U.S. recession this year and a risk of lasting damage to the country's standing as an investment destination if the administration undermines trust in U.S. governance.
The changes come after a bumper year in which the bonus pool for employees in New York City's securities industry surged to a record $47.5 billion for 2024, the highest in records dating back to 1987, the estimates showed.
As the world's top financial center, one in every 11 jobs in the city is either directly or indirectly associated with the securities industry, the comptroller estimated.
Wall Street's biggest banks reported rising investment banking fees last year, fueled by more deals and corporate debt issuance. After profits rose 90% in 2024, the latest bonus data reflected the first major increase since banks reaped a windfall in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Employment in the securities industry in 2024 reached its highest level in at least three decades, to 201,500 employees, up from 198,400 a year earlier.
The 2024 bonuses will generate $600 million more in state income tax revenue and $275 million more for the city compared with 2023, according to estimates from DiNapoli.
(Reporting by Saeed Azhar; editing by Lananh Nguyen, Leslie Adler and Sharon Singleton)
