What to know about the ruling barring Marine Le Pen from seeking public office for five years

PARIS (AP) — French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has been sentenced to a five-year ban on running for public office for embezzling EU funds, a major political earthquake. The ruling, which takes effect immediately, is likely to bar her from running in France’s next presidential election.

Le Pen, who was twice runner-up to French President Emmanuel Macron, has enjoyed growing support in recent years. Monday's verdict will weigh heavily on political life, both in France and more widely in Europe, and on her own future as a political force.

What does the ruling say?

For Le Pen, the worst-case scenario materialized.

The 56-year-old daughter of the late far-right totemic figure Jean-Marie Le Pen was sentenced to two years under house arrest while wearing an electronic ankle bracelet, and an additional two-year suspended sentence, and five years’ ineligibility for public office with immediate effect.

Le Pen’s lawyer said she would appeal the verdict but she will remain ineligible while she does and so could be ruled out of the 2027 presidential race. Le Pen won’t serve the house arrest sentence until all appeals are exhausted but the ban on running for office will be implemented immediately despite her legal challenge.

With the election just two years away, time is running out, and there’s no guarantee that an appeals court would rule more favorably.

Le Pen and other National Rally party officials stood trial for having used money intended for European Union parliamentary aides instead to pay staff who worked for the party between 2004 and 2016, violating the 27-nation bloc’s regulations. The National Rally was called the National Front at the time.

The judge said Le Pen had been at the heart of a “system” that her party used to siphon off EU parliament money. Le Pen, who denied wrongdoing. was also fined 100,000 euros ($108,000).

Le Pen's efforts ruined

Monday's ruling came amid record ratings in opinion polls for Le Pen, who hoped her decade-long efforts to steer her party towards the mainstream would finally deliver at the next presidential election.

Since she inherited the leadership of the National Front party from her father in 2011, she has worked to crack the wall of fear of the far right that so far has barred their path to the presidency.

She changed the party name and booted her embarrassing father out in 2015, part of her effort to rid the renamed National Rally of the taint of racism and antisemitism that clung to the far right for decades.

A wily politician, Le Pen also transformed her own image from that of an aggressive, anti-system proponent to a mild-mannered spokeswoman for France’s forgotten.

The normalization strategy has paid off and the party has become the main political group in the lower house of the Parliament, developing a strong network of officials across France.

What's next?

Since 2011, Le Pen has been the leading figure of the National Rally. Ten years later, Jordan Bardella, 29, succeeded her as party president so that she could focus on the upcoming presidential election.

Last year, Bardella led the party's campaign for the European elections while Le Pen took the helm of the group of RN lawmakers at the French National Assembly. Under Monday's ruling, Le Pen is allowed to keep her mandate as a member of Parliament.

Bardella had a meteoric rise to the top, honing his political skills as the president of the party’s youth wing. Although he has been careful not to overshadow Le Pen, his popularity has grown fast, especially among young people. If Le Pen is effectively banned from running, Bardella seems like the natural candidate to succeed her.

Yet observers say there’s no guarantee he would be able to convince as many voters as she does. In recent months, some voices inside the party have criticized his management as too focused on his personal career.

Le Pen’s party takes a financial hit

The National Rally was fined 2 million euros, of which it must definitely pay 1 million, while the other half would be demanded in the event of a repeat offence. The party will also relinquish another million euros which were confiscated during the investigation.

It’s unclear how big an impact the confiscation and fine will have on the party’s coffers. An audit of the party’s accounts between 2013 and 2016 revealed that it was running a deficit of 9.1 million euros by the end of 2016. Yet, the party still had a cash balance of 1.7 million euros and had lent 1 million euros to Le Pen’s 2017 presidential campaign, while also holding 87,000 euros in loans to Cotelec, its funding association.

At the time, the party was also indebted to a Russian bank for 9.4 million euros, a loan taken out in 2014 for 6 million euros. However, the National Rally's electoral successes in last year's legislative elections provided broad financial resources to the party. In France, state funding of political parties is largely based on election results.