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By the time the Oscars wind around after months of other award shows and constant handicapping, the prizes can feel almost predetermined.
Not this year.
Sunday's 97th Academy Awards has more potential drama than any recent year, with many possible outcomes in the top categories, including best picture, best actor and best actress. After the first frontrunner and lead nominee, “Emilia Pérez,” became engulfed in controversy, “Anora” ran the table with a trio of precursor guild honors. Then “Conclave” swooped in to win at the BAFTAs and Screen Actors Guild Awards.
Who will come out on top? Associated Press Film Writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions.
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: “Anora," “The Brutalist," “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “I’m Still Here,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Substance,” “Wicked"
COYLE: Like any diagnosis this flu season, there are a lot of options. It would seem to be down to either “Anora” (PGA, DGA and WGA wins) or “Conclave” (BAFTA, SAG), but it’s close enough that a shocker is in the realm of possibility. The film industry is in a strange, mixed-up place and we have had a strange, mixed-up awards season to suit it. Ultimately, I think Sean Baker’s “Anora” wins. I trust the top prizes from the BAFTAs and SAGs less than the Producers Guild – especially when the PGA opts for a scrappy indie over glossier studio productions. Plus, “Conclave” is a nice little movie, but best picture? Not to get my vestments in a twist, but come on, “Anora” is a masterpiece.
BAHR: I kind of want to say “Conclave” just to hedge our bets. Maybe I’ll talk myself into it by the end of this, but its recent wins over “Anora” do make a certain amount of sense (in retrospect) for those particular voting bodies — actors and, well, Brits. It’s also the establishment choice in many ways, but one that also feels aligned with the very international membership of the academy. I agree that “Anora” is a masterpiece, but maybe “Conclave” is the consensus – everyone’s second choice.
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Demi Moore, “The Substance”; Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”; Mikey Madison, “Anora”; Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”; Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
BAHR: This race feels so up in the air after Mikey Madison’s BAFTA win and “Anora’s” rise in general. Madison gave such a great and thoughtful speech there, praising her collaborators with the kind of specificity that doesn’t often happen on those stages, and it occurred before Oscar voting had ended. There’s even the possibility that Fernanda Torres ekes out a win. But I’m still leaning towards Demi Moore, who won at SAG, as the sentimental favorite — a fun, wild performance and a great comeback narrative. Plus, this award hasn’t really gone to an ingenue since Emma Stone’s “La La Land” win.
COYLE: This should be close, but I also give the edge to Moore. She’s taken the lead thanks to the fearlessness of her performance in “The Substance” and arguably the season’s most convincing narrative. Still, I’d favor Madison, who absolutely commands “Anora.”
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”; Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”; Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”; Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”; Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
COYLE: Brody had been on cruise control for much of the season, but I think Chalamet takes it. Even before his big victory at the SAG Awards, the academy’s fondness for the widely liked “A Complete Unknown” needed somewhere to go. This Oscars could end up best remembered as the (deserving) coronation of Hollywood’s crown prince.
BAHR: Oh great, because I’m sticking with Brody. I’m glad Chalamet won at SAG, it’s makes sense that his fellow actors would want to honor his commitment to that role and film. Five years in your 20s IS forever and it would be very neat for him to win at the same age Brody did for “The Pianist” (and in fact become the youngest winner ever). But considering the academy is a voting body that doesn’t often give this prize to young men, I think they go with the classic choice.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”; Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”; Ariana Grande, “Wicked”; Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”; Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
BAHR: Zoe Saldaña seems to have this prize in the bag. She has continued winning major awards, the BAFTA and SAG included, despite the “Emilia Pérez” dust up. Like Moore, she has a strong narrative working in her favor and has given good, passionate speeches throughout and people seem savvy enough to not “punish” her for her co-star’s actions. It does seem a little unfair considering the fact that her character has more screentime than the person campaigning for lead. But that’s a conversation for another time.
COYLE: Saldaña is a lock. She’s terrific in “Emilia Pérez,” and manages to stay so grounded and natural amid such tonal extremes. A word, also for Grande and her best actress nominee co-star Erivo. Neither seems destined to win anything, but they both deserve some kind of accolade for their tireless promotion of “Wicked” and months of patient, understanding head nodding at whatever has been thrown their way.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Yura Borisov, “Anora”; Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”; Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”; Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”; Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice"
COYLE: Culkin wins this in a walk. His parade of acceptance speeches has curiously been both a regular reminder that his character in “A Real Pain” wasn’t exactly a stretch, and: So what? As good as this category is — the whole group is stellar — Culkin has won it through his natural manic charisma.
BAHR: It’s Culkin for sure and I’m very excited for his freewheeling speech. Is this a good time to wonder why awards campaigns tend to get so tunnel visioned around one performance at the complete exclusion of their counterpart? Probably not, but I see you Jesse Eisenberg and Margaret Qualley.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”; Sean Baker, “Anora”; Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”; James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown” Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
BAHR: Sean Baker is the most likely winner here after the Directors Guild of America Awards. But it has happened that the DGA winner does not go on to win the Oscar, and as recently as 2020 when Sam Mendes lost the Oscar to Bong Joon-ho. But “Anora” is perhaps closer to “Parasite,” both Palme d’Or winners, and I’m not sure there’s an obvious second choice in this batch. If Baker isn’t the pick, all seem like fair game.
COYLE: I think Baker will win, too, though there’s a chance Corbet catches him. All of these nominees are first-timers, a nice infusion of fresh blood in a category often presided over by the old guard. A shame then that neither of the two most thrilling feature filmmaking debuts – RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”) and Payal Kapadia (“All We Imagine as Light”) – made the cut.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Nominees: “Black Box Diaries”; “No Other Land”; “Porcelain War”; “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”; “Sugarcane”
COYLE: This is a tough category partly because most of my favorite docs of 2024 — “Ernest Cole: Lost and Found,” “Will & Harper,” “Dahomey,” “Daughters” — weren’t nominated. The Oscar will likely either go to “No Other Land,” the searing on-the-ground chronicle of Israeli occupation in the West Bank, or “Porcelain War,” a defiant portrait of keeping art and Ukrainian culture alive in the midst of war. My hunch is “Porcelain War” wins, making it the second straight Ukraine dispatch to win, and a potentially poignant moment given recent policy shifts by President Donald Trump on Ukraine.
BAHR: This is impossible, and I would really like to hear what “Sugarcane” co-director Julian Brave NoiseCat says from the Oscar stage, but I’m going to go with “No Other Land.” In addition to being a great film, it’s stayed top of mind and in the conversation despite not having a distributor.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Nominees: “I’m Still Here,” Brazil; “The Girl with the Needle,” Denmark; “Emilia Pérez,” France; “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Germany; “Flow,” Latvia
BAHR: The International category is especially difficult to predict this year. “Emilia Pérez’s” best picture campaign may have flatlined, but it still won the BAFTA in the same category where it was up against two of the same contenders ( “I’m Still Here” and “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” ). “I’m Still Here” is its toughest competition, though it’s hard to count “Flow” out either. In the end, I think it may still swing “Emilia Pérez.”
COYLE: What was once a cakewalk for “Emilia Pérez” has turned into a genuine nailbiter. I think “I’m Still Here” wins it, thanks not just to the collapse of “Emilia Pérez” but the ascendance of Walter Salles’ timely tale of political courage. It’s a worthy winner, though I would love to see exiled Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof cheered for “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” the year’s most courageous cinematic accomplishment.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Nominees: “Flow”; “Inside Out 2”; “Memoir of a Snail”; “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”; “The Wild Robot”
COYLE: As much as I’d like to pick “Flow,” the gorgeous ecological parable about a cat in a watered world, “The Wild Robot” is going to win. Stiff as the competition is, Chris Sanders' movie swept the Annie Awards and is the consensus favorite. And since I, seemingly alone, found it too cloyingly manipulative to be genuinely moving, it also convinced me that I have no heart. So a double win for “The Wild Robot.”
BAHR: I’ll pick “Flow!” In the grand tradition of the film significant enough to be nominated in two major categories, this seems like the place it’ll win unless Feathers McGraw has anything to say about it.
