Who could form Lithuania's next government?

By Andrius Sytas

VILNIUS (Reuters) -Lithuanians vote in a parliamentary election on Sunday, with polls predicting that the opposition centre-left Social Democrats will beat the incumbent centre-right government of Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte.

Here are key facts about the ballot in Lithuania, a member of the European Union and NATO with a population of 2.9 million.

WHAT IS AT STAKE?

Both main parties are supporters of Ukraine and critics of Russia and their foreign and defence policies are largely similar.

However, domestic issues have loomed large in the campaign, with the Social Democrats vowing to fight inequality by raising taxes for wealthier Lithuanians to fund more spending on healthcare and social services.

Simonyte's centre-right Homeland Union party has emphasised its record of keeping state finances in order and bolstering national security.

Neither party is likely to win a majority alone and will need to negotiate with smaller parties to form a coalition government.

A Lithuanian government has only once won re-election, in 2004, in the three decades since the country regained its independence from Moscow as the Soviet Union collapsed.

HOW DOES VOTING WORK?

Under Lithuania's hybrid voting system, half of the parliament is elected by the popular vote, with a 5% threshold needed to win seats. 

The other half is elected on a district basis, a process likely to favour the Social Democrat and Homeland Union parties at the expense of smaller parties. If no candidate gets over 50% of the vote in a district, its top two candidates face each other in a run-off on Oct. 27.

WHO ARE THE MAIN PARTIES?

SOCIAL DEMOCRATS - They have the support of Lithuania's popular president, Gitanas Nauseda, and are campaigning on promises to make the country fairer, for example by increasing taxes on the wealthy and improving public services.

Party leader Vilija Blinkeviciute, 64, has been a European Parliament member since 2009. She made her name by boosting pensions as social affairs minister in 2000-2008.

HOMELAND UNION - It led the country through the pandemic, a spike in inflation to 20% following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and a doubling in national defence spending.

Simonyte, a fiscal hawk, has kept tight control of government finances but critics say she has failed in her promise to make the tax system fairer.

NEMUNAS DAWN - A populist party established in 2023 by firebrand Remigijus Zemaitaitis, it has run a fierce campaign criticising the government and the establishment. 

Zemaitaitis resigned from parliament in April after the Constitutional Court found he broke his oath by stirring up hatred against Jews. Both Homeland Union and Social Democrats have ruled out having Nemunas Dawn in any coalition they led.

LIBERAL MOVEMENT PARTY - The party, led by chess grandmaster Viktorija Cmilyte-Nielsen, is part of Simonyte's outgoing coalition. 

FREEDOM PARTY - A pro-business grouping that also served in Simonyte's coalition, it is backed by young voters and headed by Economy Minister Ausrine Armonaite. It has blocked government attempts to introduce new taxes and supports the legalisation of same-sex partnerships.

FARMERS AND GREENS UNION - Headed by Ramunas Karbauskis, Lithuania's largest landowner and one of its wealthiest citizens, the party held power in 2016-2020 with popular former chief policeman Saulius Skvernelis as its prime minister.

FOR LITHUANIA - The party is a political vehicle for Skvernelis who left the Farmers and Greens Union after disagreements with Karbauskis. It is seen as a possible fourth coalition party for Homeland Union, potentially allowing Simonyte to stay in power.

WHAT DO THE POLLS SAY?

A survey conducted by pollster Vilmorus/Lietuvos Rytas suggest the Social Democrats will come first, with 18% of the vote, followed by the anti-establishment Nemunas Dawn on 12%.

Simonyte's ruling Homeland Union is placed third with 9%.

(Reporting by Andrius Sytas, Editing by Alan Charlish and Gareth Jones)