With Gaza tensions high, Egyptians and Israelis warn of a new war

(CNN) — “Are we going to war?” asks a worried Cairo saleswoman upon learning that she’s speaking to a journalist. The ominous question about the prospect of war between Egypt and Israel has crept into many conversations in the country.

These murmurs of war reveal growing concerns among a population worn down by successive economic crises and horrified by the devastation it has seen Israel inflict on Gaza and Lebanon. Over the past few weeks, the diplomatic row over US President Donald Trump’s proposal to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt has intensified this anxiety, turning this chatter into fervent debate.

The same question, along with alarming answers, has ricocheted through Egyptian, Arab and Israeli media. An Israeli website published an AI-generated scenario of an attack destroying Egypt’s strategic High Dam. And an Egyptian YouTuber posted an AI-generated video of an attack on Israel’s nuclear reactor. Keyboard warriors trade accusations and threats on various social media platforms and TV shows debate what they see as evidence of each side’s readiness for war.

According to a report in Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, this “war sentiment” is fueled by misleading information amplified by right-wing outlets in Israel. It debunked many of the claims circulating on social media and TV about an Egyptian military buildup at the border.

Amos Harel, a defense analyst at Israeli newspaper Haaretz, said he doesn’t know “how much (of) this is coordinated and how much is spontaneous,” but added that it may be in the interest of the Israeli far right to “stir the pot regarding Egypt” to divert attention from domestic criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Families of hostages held in Gaza have accused Netanyahu of wavering on a deal to free the captives in order to appease hardliners in his government, which he has denied. Egypt and other mediators are trying to salvage the ceasefire, which went into effect in January and is now hanging by a thread.

Tensions over the Sinai Peninsula

The main point of contention is whether Cairo has deployed more soldiers and military equipment to the Sinai than permitted under the security provisions that followed the 1979 peace treaty with Israel.

The treaty, brokered by the United States, ended decades of war between both countries and set limits on Egypt’s military footprint in the Sinai Peninsula that borders Israel. It ushered in an era of close security cooperation between the two, and with the US.

Egypt has been keen to emphasize that it is following the rules. In 2016, while fighting a local ISIS branch, it secured Israel’s approval to expand its military presence in the Sinai. When Egypt reinforced its border with Gaza and bolstered its security last year, Egyptian officials insisted the deployment remained within the framework of a 2016 agreement between the two.

In September, Egypt conducted a military drill in Sinai using live ammunition, followed by a military parade in October that was attended by President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. Media on both sides of the border have aired footage of these events and said they are signs of possible war preparations.

Such alarm hasn’t been confined to the media, as Israeli officials have also chimed in.

“We have (seen) bases being built that can only be used for offensive operations,” Israel’s ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, told a meeting of American Jewish leaders in January. He alleged Egypt was in “serious violation” of the peace treaty and that this would be addressed “very emphatically.”

Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, reportedly asked why Egypt is spending “hundreds of millions of dollars on military equipment” in an interview with an Israeli radio station. “This should raise alarm bells. We have learned our lesson. We must monitor Egypt closely and prepare for every scenario,” he said.

Egyptian and Israeli military spokespeople did not respond to CNN questions regarding the alleged deployments and whether they would constitute a violation of the security agreements.

Military analysts on both sides dismiss media reports of Egyptian deployments in Sinai as baseless.

“No (Egyptian) tank enters Sinai without Israel’s approval,” said Hossam el-Hamalawy, a Berlin-based Egyptian security analyst, arguing that Egypt’s military doesn’t have the capacity to enter a war with Israel. Most of the videos of Egyptian military deployment and drills circulating in Arab and Israeli media, he explained, are either old or not filmed in Sinai.

‘If we are destined to fight, we are up to it’

In a rare TV interview with the traditionally media-shy military establishment, a leading Egyptian military commander, Maj. Gen. Ahmad Mahmoud Safi El-Din, told Saudi news channel Al-Hadath on Thursday that Egypt’s military expenditure and efforts to modernize its arsenal were meant to “preserve peace and stability in the region.”

Outgoing Israeli military chief of staff Herzi Halevi also addressed the growing concern in a public address last week but said it was not a priority. “We think that it is not a threat at the moment, but it could change in an instant,” he said.

With the absence of a stated government position, the matter was left for influential media personalities to interpret.

“We are not on the verge of a war with Israel,” popular Egyptian talk show host Amr Adib told viewers in February. Known for his close ties to the Egyptian government, he was careful to couch his reassurance, saying it only reflects the current moment, “as in right now, at 10:15 p.m.,” he said, looking at his watch, implying it could quickly change.

Both countries violate the peace treaty, he said, and it would only collapse if one side attacks the other, “but we are not entering war.”

“Israel understands it would be seriously hurt in such confrontation… If we are destined to fight, we are up to it,” he added.

Unprecedented pressure on peace treaty

The creeping threat of war has overshadowed domestic issues facing the leaders of both countries. Yet, analysts also point to a series of events that could potentially undermine the treaty.

“Rational minds do not want the treaty to be at risk. The action taken over the past 15 months have put pressure on the treaty that have never been at this level before,” said Nabil Fahmy, former Egyptian foreign minister and dean emeritus of the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the American University in Cairo.

What could eventually tip the balance is the potential expulsion of Gazans into Egypt, which Fahmy said would constitute a threat to Egypt’s national security.

In the months leading up to Israel’s operation in the Gazan border city of Rafah, which started in May, Egypt warned that forcing over 1 million Palestinians sheltering there into Egypt, as proposed by some Israeli officials, would put the treaty at risk.

A year ago, Sisi, the Egyptian president, told reporters and his European counterparts that any such displacement would mean moving the Palestinian fight against Israel to Egyptian territory. “Sinai would become a base for fighting against Israel… In response, Israel would attack Egyptian territory,” he said.

So, when Trump presented his plan to displace Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan and turn Gaza into a Middle Eastern “riviera,” this scenario was already in the back of people’s minds.

“Israelis did not take the Trump plan seriously. But on the Egyptian side, it was taken deadly seriously,” explained Max Rodenbeck, the Israel/Palestine project director at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. Fearing that pressure would build up in Washington D.C. for Cairo to comply, Egyptians had to make a show of political force and indicate that the treaty is at risk, he said.

Arab nations didn’t want to directly antagonize the US president by engaging in a media spat. In their rejection of the plan, official statements said they looked forward to cooperation with Trump to achieve peace in the region. Arab leaders are expected to meet in Cairo this week to discuss a counter plan to present to Trump.

Whether Trump backtracks or not, there is a realization among Arab nations that the region, like the rest of the world, is entering uncharted territory under his second term in office.

“Trump’s proposal is in complete contradiction with the whole objective of comprehensive peace between Arabs and Israelis,” Fahmy said.

Fahmy, like the security experts who spoke with CNN, downplayed the real-life impact of the media chatter about an impending war, but all were worried by its growing intensity.

There is an underlying fear that the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, the first between an Arab country and the Jewish state – and which has become a bedrock of regional security – might be facing its greatest threat since it was signed 45 years ago.

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