David Chalian breaks down results in CNN's final Trump-Harris poll

(CNN) — The race for the White House rests on a razor’s edge in the final nationwide CNN poll before votes are counted. The poll, conducted by SSRS, finds 47% of likely voters support Vice President Kamala Harris and an equal 47% support former President Donald Trump.

CNN polling has found a tight race throughout the short campaign between Harris and Trump. In September, likely voters split 48% for Harris and 47% for Trump, nearly identical to the new poll, and a poll just after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race over the summer and threw his support behind Harris found 49% of registered voters behind Trump, with 46% backing Harris.

Trump has never trailed outside the margin of error in CNN’s polling on this year’s presidential contest against either Harris or Biden, a stark departure from his previous two runs for the presidency.

The race has been remarkably stable throughout this tumultuous political year. The poll finds that 85% of likely voters who’ve made a choice say they knew which party they would support in the presidential election all along, and just 15% say they changed their minds along the way. As of now, even more than that are fully locked in: A scant 2% of all likely voters say they haven’t yet chosen a candidate, and another 9% say that they could change their minds before casting a ballot.

Those voters who say their choices are locked in now split 50% Harris to 49% Trump, with just 1% supporting other candidates. Those who could change tilt toward Trump and are much more likely than decided voters to be backers of minor-party and independent candidates (38% support Trump, 31% Harris, 30% someone else). They are also much less motivated to vote than those who’ve made a decision. While 70% of likely voters who say their minds are made up say they are “extremely motivated” to vote, that drops to just 27% among those who could change their minds.

Harris has likely banked more votes than Trump so far, given Democrats’ higher propensity to vote early or by mail, according to the poll. The poll was fielded October 20-23, after early and absentee voting was well underway across the country, and found the 20% of likely voters who say they have already cast their ballots break 61% Harris to 36% Trump, while those who say they haven’t yet voted break in Trump’s favor, 50% to 44%.

The nation’s mood

The final days of the campaign find the country’s registered voters deeply negative about both Biden’s presidency and the way things are going in the nation more generally. About half, 49%, say they are worse off financially now than they were a year ago, while just 16% say their financial position has improved in the last 12 months. That’s worse than at the start of this year, when 41% said they were worse off and 22% felt better off. Just 32% say things in the US are going well today, down from 38% who felt that way in January. This was the lowest share to say so in the final CNN poll before a presidential election since 2008, when dissatisfaction with the burgeoning economic crisis and lingering Iraq war catapulted Barack Obama to the presidency.

Biden’s approval rating in the new poll among registered voters is deeply underwater (36% approve and 64% disapprove). The vice president holds support from 19% of likely voters who say they disapprove of the way Biden is handling the presidency. Past vice presidents making a run for the top job have not typically fared that well among voters who disapproved of their boss: George H.W. Bush carried just 11% of those who disapproved of Ronald Reagan in the 1988 exit poll, and Al Gore won only 9% of voters who disapproved of Bill Clinton’s work in 2000.

Assessing the candidates

Registered voters’ views of both Harris (41% favorable to 52% unfavorable) and Trump (41% favorable to 54% unfavorable) break negative. Trump’s ratings are nearly identical to what they were in September, while Harris’ have become slightly more negative (down 4 points on favorability). The vice presidential candidates, JD Vance and Tim Walz, remain less well-known than their running mates, with views of Walz splitting evenly (34% favorable and 34% unfavorable) and views of Vance breaking negatively (33% favorable to 43% unfavorable).

While most Harris voters say their vote is more for her (54%) than against Trump (45%), the share who say they’re voting mainly against Trump has grown 5 points since September, perhaps reflecting Harris’ own recent focus on a more vocally anti-Trump message. Trump’s supporters, meanwhile, remain widely likely to say their vote is to express support for him (73%) over opposition to Harris (27%).

More likely voters say Harris rather than Trump cares about people like them (43% Harris to 37% Trump), is honest and trustworthy (41% Harris to 29% Trump), and will put the country’s interests above their own (45% Harris to 39% Trump). Trump holds the edge on bringing the kind of change the country needs (44% Trump to 38% Harris) and on sharing voters’ vision for the country (43% Trump to 39% Harris).

Across each of those attributes though, 16% or more of likely voters say neither candidate fits the bill. Most notably, 29% say neither candidate is honest and trustworthy and 19% say neither cares about people like them. The nearly 3 in 10 who see neither candidate as honest and trustworthy break by a wide margin for Trump: 58% support him, 25% Harris. Harris, meanwhile, holds a wide edge among voters who think that neither can bring the kind of change the country needs (52% Harris to 23% Trump) or who say neither shares their vision for the country (50% Harris to 27% Trump).

Likely voters are largely put off by Trump’s demeanor and temperament (56% say it’s a reason to vote against him). About half say the same about his criminal conviction and the criminal charges he faces (51%) and about his pledge to go after his enemies if elected president (50%). More see his level of physical and mental ability as a reason to vote against him (46%) than for him (35%), a negative shift relative to perceptions of his abilities when he was running against Biden. And likely voters divide over whether his record as president is a positive (45%) or a negative (43%). His record as a businessman is seen as somewhat more of a plus, though (42% see it as a reason to vote for him, 39% against him).

Among Trump’s own supporters, relatively few see his demeanor or pledge to pursue his enemies as a reason to oppose him, and about half of his base see these elements as a positive part of his appeal.

Harris’ demeanor and temperament (45% a reason to vote for, 34% against) and mental and physical abilities (49% reason to vote for, 27% against) are more clearly positives for likely voters. Her record as vice president is more often seen as negative than positive (46% say it’s a reason to vote against her, 26% for her), and her record as a prosecutor produces a split reaction (33% for, 32% against, 35% doesn’t matter).

Few say that Harris’ potential to be the first female president should be a factor in the election (65% say it doesn’t make a difference either way). Those that do are more likely to see it as a positive (24%) than a negative (11%). Women are more likely than men to say it’s a reason to vote for her (29% vs. 20%), with an especially large divide among her own supporters (52% of female Harris supporters say it’s a reason to vote for her vs. 39% of her male supporters).

The dynamic between the two candidates on top issues remains roughly where it was last month. Trump maintains broad leads among likely voters as more trusted to handle the economy (50% say they trust Trump more, 37% Harris) and immigration (50% Trump to 34% Harris), with a narrower edge for handling foreign policy (48% Trump to 38% Harris). Harris holds a wide advantage on handling abortion and reproductive rights (52% Harris to 31% Trump) and a smaller one on protecting democracy (45% Harris to 41% Trump).

Looking at how decisive two of those issues might be for voters, the survey suggests a small issue advantage for Harris: 31% of registered voters say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their view on abortion, up from 24% who said the same in April. Fewer in the new poll, 26%, see a candidate’s views on immigration the same way.

Vote among key groups

Harris has a narrow edge with independents (45% Harris to 41% Trump), and both candidates carry more than 90% of their own partisans (93% of Democrats back Harris, 92% of Republicans favor Trump).

Harris holds the advantage over Trump among women (50% Harris to 44% Trump), younger voters (51% Harris to 41% Trump among voters younger than 35), and voters of color, including Black likely voters (79% Harris to 13% Trump) and Hispanic likely voters (54% Harris to 37% Trump). Suburban voters break in Harris’ direction (52% Harris to 44% Trump), with her edge there fueled largely by suburban women, who break 55% Harris to 41% Trump; suburban men split almost evenly.

Trump, meanwhile, has a lead with men (51% Trump to 45% Harris), White likely voters (55% Trump to 41% Harris), rural voters (64% Trump to 31% Harris) and those who say they did not cast a ballot in 2020 (50% Trump to 40% Harris).

There is little gender gap among White likely voters, with White men breaking for Trump by 17 points and White women by 13 points. Among likely voters of color, though, while both genders broadly split in Harris’ favor, women do so by a wider margin. Harris runs 46 points ahead of Trump with women of color, while she is up 27 points among men of color. White voters also continue to divide sharply by education, with White likely voters who do not have a college degree supporting Trump 62% to 34%, while those who do have a four-year degree split almost evenly, 50% Harris to 46% Trump.

The survey finds no clear leader on a generic congressional ballot, with 48% of likely voters saying they prefer the Republican candidate in their congressional district to 45% who would vote for the Democrat.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS online and by telephone October 20-23, 2024, among 1,704 registered voters nationwide drawn from a probability-based panel. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results for the full sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points; it is 3.1 for likely voters, and larger for subgroups.

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