Hanging on the Fed

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

It's finally decision time for the U.S. Federal Reserve and the market is split on whether it will cut its key interest rate by 25 or 50 basis points, though fund futures picked up a bid this morning and now imply a 59% chance of an outsized move.

The analyst community is more cautious, with 92 of 101 forecasters polled by Reuters tipping 25bps. JPMorgan is notable in predicting a larger cut, arguing rates are a full percentage point too restrictive given the stage of the economic cycle.

With inflation slowing, a sizeable cut would be needed just to stop real interest rates from climbing. Moreover, the next meeting is not until early November which is one reason markets have 114 basis points of easing priced in by Christmas and a further 142 basis points for 2025.

That meeting will also be just two days after the presidential election, making a move then politically charged. Speaking of the election, Republican contender Donald Trump is safe after the FBI foiled another apparent attempt on his life.

Betting site PredictIt continues to have Trump at 47 cents and Kamala Harris a cent down at 56 cents.

All this, combined with holidays in Japan and China, make for a cautious start in Asian trade with most equity markets little changed. The dollar was pinned at 140.50 yen as the Japanese currency keeps leading the charge higher. It has fallen the most this year so has the most room to rally. A break of 140.00 would open the way to a low from last January at 127.215.

Sentiment was not helped by data on Chinese retail sales, industrial output and house prices over the weekend which merely underscored the need for more economic stimulus from Beijing.

Among other central banks meeting this week, the Bank of England is expected to hold its policy interest rate at 5.0% by all 65 analysts polled, though the market implies a 31% chance of a surprise cut. Inflation figures on Wednesday should help refine the odds.

The Bank of Japan is considered certain to stand pat on Friday but may lay the groundwork for tightening in October. South Africa's central bank is tipped to start its easing campaign this week, while policymakers in Norway are seen on hold.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- Germany wholesale price inflation, EU trade balance

- New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index

- U.S. three-month, six-month T-bill auctions

(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Christopher Cushing)