How the Venezuelan presidential election could impact the US southern border

Venezuela, Caracas (CNN) — Venezuelans are anxiously awaiting the result of a highly consequential presidential election after casting their votes Sunday, in which the country’s longtime strongman, Nicolas Maduro, faces one of his greatest political challenges yet, say analysts.

People began lining outside polling centers at dawn, casting votes throughout the day — though it remains unclear when the electoral authorities will announce the results.

As night fell, many of those out on the streets voiced concerns that the opposition will not see a fair contest, as Maduro’s government controls all public institutions in Venezuela and has been accused of rigging previous votes, which it denied.

Experts had said that opposition party representatives will be present at each polling station to watch against vote tampering and to ensure fairness. But on Sunday night, the opposition’s main witness said she and other members had been denied access to the National Electoral Council (CNE) as it collates the results in the capital Caracas.

Delsa Solórzano, president of the Citizen Encounter Party, part of a larger opposition coalition, also said CNE had stopped sending voting data from polling stations to the central authority, to prevent more votes from being processed. She added that she had tried contacting the CNE, without any response.

CNN has reached out to the CNE, which has not yet commented on the allegations.

Maduro, who took the mantle of the ruling Chavismo movement after his predecessor Hugo Chavez’s death in 2013, is seeking his third consecutive six-year term in office. Of the nine other candidates running for the presidency, his biggest challenger is a unified opposition movement that overcame their divisions to form a coalition known as the Democratic Unitary Platform.

The opposition movement has maintained its momentum despite sustained government repression, in which their first-choice candidate, María Corina Machado, was disqualified from running. Machado, an avowed capitalist who has promised privatization of several state industries, has since rallied for her replacement, the soft-spoken former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia.

The vote has come at a crucial moment for Venezuela, which has experienced violent repression under Maduro’s watch and the worst economic collapse of a peacetime country in recent history. The oil-rich nation, once the fifth-largest economy in Latin America, has seen its economy shrink in the last decade to the equivalent of a medium-sized city, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. 

Punishing sanctions on the regime by the United States and European Union have failed to topple the populist incumbent, who argues that Venezuela’s woes are due to being a victim of an “economic war.”

Around eight million Venezuelans have fled the country amid shortages of vital goods and soaring inflation, and others will feel compelled to leave if Maduro wins, says the opposition coalition that has promised to restore Venezuela’s democracy.

Fleeing Venezuelans “would create huge pressure and destabilization in the region. And of course, in the south border of the United States, but in the country,” opposition leader Machado said Sunday, adding that an opposition victory would bring “millions of Venezuelans … back home.”

On Sunday, some voters in Caracas appeared optimistic for change. “[After] 25 years, I see that there is a real chance to change. I see a lot of people getting together to vote,” voter Mariana Schemel said.

“I’m doing this for my children and my grandchildren,” voter Amelia Perez told CNN. She has three sons, one of whom is living in Washington, D.C. “I want him to come back and I don’t want my children to leave. All the rest of my family already left.”

‘A historic participation figure’

Voters came out in droves to vote on Sunday, according to the opposition coalition. Outside a polling station in Caracas, Venezuelans chanted “we want to vote” as they waited for hours in line to get to the ballot box. Abroad, Venezuelan expatriates rallied in Miami, Florida, and the Peruvian capital Lima.

More than 21 million people are registered to vote, both in the country and abroad. The opposition coalition reported later on Sunday afternoon a 54.8% voter turnout, representing at least 11.7 million voters.

“This is huge. If this continues, it will be a historic participation figure,” Machado said in a statement released Sunday afternoon. “What you are seeing is the most important civic act in our history.”

There were also minor “problems” at some voting stations, including a small number of stations that couldn’t be set up and delays in processing voters’ ID cards, Machado said.

And in Caracas, 55-year-old voter Henrique Mendoza told CNN he was turned away from a polling center by soldiers for wearing cargo shorts, after queuing for hours – despite the CNE previously saying there is no dress code for polling centers.

Many scenarios

When Maduro voted at 6 a.m. in the capital, he urged citizens to respect the results of the election. His main challenger González said the opposition coalition is “going to wait for the results from the National Electoral Council, however, we also have our methods and mechanisms to know the progress of today’s electoral process.”

The election campaign has seen at least 71 people arbitrarily detained – the majority of whom provided some sort of service to the opposition – and a dozen online media outlets blocked within the country, according to human rights organization Laboratorio de Paz.

The government has also created significant impediments for the millions of Venezuelans abroad to vote, including widely unattainable passport and residency requirements. Only 69,211 Venezuelans living abroad are eligible to vote in this year’s poll, according to data published by the CNE.

A limited group of election observers, including a team from The Carter Center – a non-profit organization set up by former US President Jimmy Carter – will be on the ground. But several international election observers have announced this week that they will no longer travel to Venezuela to monitor the vote.

Latin American leaders, including Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, have called on Maduro to commit to stepping down if he loses. Venezuelan opposition figures have also appealed to the country’s military, that has long supported Maduro and his predecessor, to respect the results. The Venezuelan leader has said his victory will ensure “peace” in the country.

The Biden administration has been monitoring the elections, telling reporters on Friday that the US stands prepared to levy additional sanctions against Venezuela if the democratic process is not allowed to unfold.

Vice President Kamala Harris said “the will of the Venezuelan people must be respected” in a post on X, adding that “despite the many challenges, we will continue to work toward a more democratic, prosperous, and secure future for the people of Venezuela.”

How the army reacts to the outcome could be an important factor in any scenario, but analysts say it impossible to parse where it stands.

“The military is absolutely key. But I must also say that the military is very hermetic, [and] it is very difficult to access information about what it is thinking,” Laura Cristina Dib, the Venezuela Program Director of Venezuela Program at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), told CNN.

With reporting from CNN’s Abel Alvarado, David Shortell and Michael Rios. 

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