Huge fundraising powers Democrats’ hopes to flip the House

(CNN) — Rep. Cindy Axne, the last Democrat standing in Iowa, went to her party’s leadership about a month before the 2022 midterms to ask for a few hundred thousand more dollars in her race, or risk losing her seat.

The money didn’t come, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions, and Axne lost the Des Moines-based seat by around 2,000 votes — one of nearly two dozen close House races that cost Democrats their majority that year.

Now, that cash crunch is a distant memory and Democrats are in striking distance of not one, but two red-tinted seats in Iowa. Vice President Kamala Harris, who raised a stunning $1 billion in three months, has fueled a fundraising revolution this cycle that is changing the game for down-ballot Democrats and deeply troubling GOP leaders. House Democrats are so flush with cash that they are seriously competing on red-tinted turf in places like Iowa and Wisconsin that were trending away from the party just a few years ago.

The Democrats’ inroads in the Midwest are on top of the dozen-plus GOP-held seats in New York and California that were already the epicenter of the battle of House control. Democrats’ huge summertime war chests have expanded that battlefield as party leaders seek every possible path to victory. Republicans have had to buckle down on defense, keeping them from truly competing in once-feasible places like southwestern Connecticut, the Nevada suburbs and southeastern Pennsylvania.

“When excitement and energy happens, then the money follows,” said Christina Bohannan, the Democrat running in the neighboring Iowa district who has shattered fundraising records in her increasingly competitive rematch against GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Bohannan not only outraised Miller-Meeks in the last quarter, but outspent the GOP incumbent by almost a 3-to-1 margin. And Democrats are planning to spend even more there in the final weeks.

The GOP is taking the threat seriously: House Speaker Mike Johnson will head to the district this week, followed by Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders later this month, according to a person familiar with the planning.

“People are just fired up,” Bohannan, the Democrat, told CNN. “We had a great message in 2022 but we didn’t have quite as much resources there to get that message out.”

But money alone won’t determine which party controls Congress. While Democrats need to net just four seats to flip the House, voters’ focus on issues like the border and the economy means that the political climate still favors the GOP. And there’s the Trump factor: Former President Donald Trump continues to do better among Hispanic voters and working class voters, fueling GOP hopes of flipping seats near the US-Mexico border and in rural Alaska and Maine.

“There is no candidate in modern history, Democrat or Republican, who turns out voters more effectively than President Trump,” Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, the House Republican Conference chairwoman, told CNN.

What is certain is that whichever party wins the House battle is almost guaranteed to face another razor-thin margin — making it all but impossible to govern for another two years.

Republicans’ cash crunch

In the final three week stretch, Republicans say it’s the Democrats’ cash advantage that’s keeping them up at night.

Out of the 32 most competitive House seats, all but two Republicans were outraised by Democrats in the most recent quarter, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission made public Tuesday. (The two GOP exceptions were Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Rep. Michelle Steel of California.)

All but six of the Democrats broke the $2 million mark, and some pulled in far more.

In a competitive open seat in central Virginia, the GOP candidate Derrick Anderson brought in $1.1 million — putting him in the upper echelon of House Republican fundraisers this year. But the Democrat in the race, Eugene Vindman, raised an astounding $6.5 million. That allowed him to outspend his GOP opponent by almost 11 to 1.

Then there is Democrat Will Rollins, with a $3.6 million haul against long-time Republican Rep. Ken Calvert in southern California, and Democrat Amish Shah, who’s challenging Arizona GOP Rep. David Schweikert, who brought in $3.45 million. Both GOP incumbents are now in more danger than Republicans believe they should be.

Elon Musk’s super PAC recently spent big for Calvert, while Trump himself stumped for Calvert in the desert town of Coachella, California, over the weekend.

Rollins described his own fundraising as “higher than we ever thought imaginable.” And he described Trump’s visit as a last chance move to save Calvert. But, he predicted: “I don’t think they’re going to end up having the resources to do it. That’s why I ultimately think we’re going to win.”

Across the country, senior Democratic Rep. Ann Kuster of New Hampshire recently drove through Pennsylvania stumping for Democratic candidate Janelle Stelson, whose fundraising haul tripled that of her GOP opponent Rep. Scott Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chairman.

“It’s insane. It’s like Senate numbers,” said Kuster, who is retiring this year after 12 years in a New Hampshire swing seat. “I never had a million dollar quarter. And now all of the candidates are having million-dollar quarters.”

Top Republicans have been forced to respond: The GOP leadership-aligned super PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund, this week announced a $2.6 million buy to help defend Perry in a seat that Trump won by nearly 5 points.

In another “reach” seat, Democrats raised so much against Steel that Republicans moved money out of a highly competitive open seat in Orange County to help protect the GOP congresswoman. And the Republican group is even beginning to spend in an open Colorado seat that Trump won by 8 points.

A ‘tsunami’ of Democratic dollars

One incumbent, Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, said he could lose his race because of the “tsunami” of money that Harris and her allies have dumped into his seat because of its unique status as a stand-alone electoral vote.

“That’s my number one issue right now, how we’re being outspent at the top of the ticket,” Bacon said, noting that Harris is spending $21 million on messaging in his district, compared to about $100,000 from Trump.

“I wish he’d put some stuff on the airwaves, show people why they need to vote for him. It helps everybody down-ballot,” Bacon said, adding: “I think the other side holds every ace right now, but we’re in the fight.”

Two years ago, Bacon’s challenger, state Sen. Tony Vargas. was outspent 3 to 1 by GOP super PAC groups. This time, Democrats have the money to keep up.

“Because we have these resources, now we have been able to battle back,” Vargas told CNN.

While Trump has been focused on his own race, Johnson and his leadership team — including campaign chief, Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina — have been making urgent pleas to fellow Republicans for last-minute cash.

But it’s too late to match one key Democratic advantage: The party went up on TV early in GOP-held seats, forcing Republican outside groups to respond in those places and narrow their own offensive opportunities. As a result, GOP groups decided not to compete in once-competitive turf, such as the seats of Democratic Reps. Angie Craig in Minnesota, Nikki Budzinski in Illinois, and Hillary Scholten in Michigan.

“(The money) is definitely sounding the alarm bells,” one senior House GOP aide told CNN. “It’s been very hard to keep up with. If we lose seats, I think that will be a defining part of the post mortem.”

With fewer of his own members on defense, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his party jumped into some long-shot races that would have been unthinkable earlier this summer. House Majority PAC is now competing in tougher races like those of Perry in Pennsylvania, Ryan Zinke in Montana and Monica De La Cruz in Texas.

Zinke himself put out an urgent fundraising call this month, warning supporters in a text: “If I don’t do a total 180 on the fundraising front, not only will I lose my House seat, Republicans may never hold the majority in Congress again.”

Zinke raised $2 million but was still narrowly outraised by his Democratic challenger, Monica Tranel. Trump won the seat by 7 points last cycle.

Trump’s strength keeps GOP’s hopes alive

Democrats need to flip several seats in two key states to have a shot at retaking the House: New York and California. These roughly dozen seats are, on paper, friendly to Democrats. Yet troubling signs have emerged.

Stefanik, who is determined to protect the GOP’s hold in New York, said Trump is so far beating his poll numbers from the last two elections while Harris is underperforming those of Biden and Hillary Clinton.

“There’s a reason President Trump is coming to Madison Square Garden,” Stefanik said. “President Trump is a believer in Republicans winning New York,”

Republicans privately believe they are likely to lose at least two incumbents in the blue states: Rep. Brandon Williams in Syracuse and John Duarte in California’s Central Valley (along with GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon, where Trump’s support hasn’t improved.) Many are also worried about Rep. Mike Garcia of southern California and Rep. Marc Molinaro in upstate New York.

And Republicans are feeling hopeful about heavily Hispanic seats in Colorado, New Mexico and Texas, where Trump is helping them go on offense. Democrats fear Rep. Yadira Caraveo of Colorado is particularly vulnerable.

Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, who represents a slice of the US-Mexico border in south Texas, said it’s a warning for his party across the board — including Harris.

“The Democrat Party, they cannot take Hispanic voters for granted,” Cuellar told CNN. As Democrats have been slow to respond on border issues, he warned Republicans are “chipping away” at their base of Hispanic voters.

He added, “In the minds of a lot of voters, they see the Democrats not being strong on border security and Republicans being strong on border security. I don’t want to say I told you so, but I used to say, ‘Guys, this is important.’”

CNN’s David Wright, Fredreka Schouten, Matt Holt and Alex Leeds Matthews contributed to this report.

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