Mozambique election likely to extend ruling Frelimo's half-century rule

By Nellie Peyton

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Mozambicans will vote on Wednesday in an election that is almost certain to see the ruling party Frelimo maintain its half-century grip on power, despite a stiff challenge from a charismatic newcomer.

President Filipe Nyusi is stepping down after two terms and the party's candidate, Daniel Chapo, is expected to replace him. Frelimo has ruled Mozambique since independence from Portugal in 1975. It first allowed elections in 1994, and has since been consistently accused by opponents and election observers of rigging them - an accusation it denies. 

This time, independent candidate Venancio Mondlane has captured the support of disenchanted youth and poses the biggest threat to Frelimo in years, political analysts say. He also poses a challenge to the official opposition party, Renamo, which was formerly a guerrilla movement waging a decades-long bush war against the government.

Whoever wins will inherit an Islamist insurgency in the north that has halted multi-billion dollar gas projects and displaced hundreds of thousands of people.

"These areas were there is terrorism are an attack on all Mozambicans," Chapo told a cheering rally of supporters in Maputo on Sunday, vowing to defend Mozambique's "peace, sovereignty and territorial integrity."

The country of 35 million people is also emerging from an economic crisis caused in part by a hidden debt scandal.

In the 2019 election, European Union observers reported cases of intimidation, ballot-box stuffing, intentional invalidation of opposition votes and altering of polling station results.

A Frelimo spokesperson did not respond to Reuters' questions about alleged vote-rigging in previous elections, or whether it would respect the results of this one if it loses. Party officials have in the past ignored or denied claims of fraud.

If the results are disputed, activists and analysts expect protests, which in the past have been violently suppressed.

"We know that at the end, the status quo will remain," said Adriano Nuvunga, director of the local Centre for Democracy and Human Rights. But he added that Mondlane's campaign was creating excitement and raising the risk of post-election unrest.

Mondlane, 50, left Renamo this year to launch his presidential bid. Renamo's candidate is its leader Ossufo Momade, a former rebel commander in the 1977-1992 civil war that killed around a million Mozambicans, many from starvation, and left thousands of amputees from exploding landmines. 

GAS DEALS

Chapo, 47, is a relatively unknown figure who is seen as an attempt by Frelimo to put forward a fresh face and appeal to younger voters. He is viewed as business-friendly, and has experience overseeing gas deals from his time as governor of Inhambane province, said Robert Besseling, CEO of consultancy Pangea-Risk.

"Frelimo wants to see these big gas deals and big mining deals signed off ... (so) it can pay back its massive debt burden," he said. "That is why they brought in Daniel Chapo."

The uprising by insurgents linked to Islamic State in Cabo Delgado province forced TotalEnergies to halt construction on a $20 billion liquefied natural gas project in 2021. ExxonMobil has a nearby project that is also on hold, thwarting Mozambique's ambitions to become a major gas exporter.

Researchers say the violence is at least partly driven by frustration among impoverished local residents who doubt they will ever benefit from their natural resources.

"The fighters in the insurgency are local people who want jobs," said Joseph Hanlon of The Open University, author of several books about Mozambique.

Chapo said recently that he would pursue talks with the leaders of the insurgency, which would be a new strategy, while continuing ground combat. He is also likely to continue a current partnership with Rwandan troops, said analysts. 

The candidates' economic plans are hazy, Hanlon said. 

"All the candidates say 'we're going to create jobs ... build roads, have better health and education' ... when the IMF is imposing austerity and there's no money to do any of this," he said. 

The International Monetary Fund said in July that Mozambique needed to manage its budget better in order to create space for social spending, given high debt levels.

(Reporting by Nellie Peyton; Additional reporting by Wendell Roelf; Editing by Tim Cocks and Frances Kerry)