Stocks gain on rate cut bets as ECB meeting looms

By Danilo Masoni and Koh Gui Qing

NEW YORK/MILAN (Reuters) -World shares rose and U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors focused on an upcoming European Central Bank policy meeting and soft U.S. labor market data firmed bets of a September Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Canada's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in four years, bolstering investor hopes that stocks would soon get a boost from lower interest rates elsewhere.

A U.S. labor report showed private payrolls increased by 152,000 jobs last month, less than forecast.

"The labor market should not be seen as a risk for inflation any longer," analysts at TD Securities said. "It is also supportive of the Fed beginning to ease policy in September if inflation continues to gradually normalize as we expect by then."

The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 49 countries, jumped 0.9%, supported by gains in Asia, Europe and on Wall Street. The S&P 500 index climbed 1.2% to a record high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index leapt 2%, also to an all-time high. [.N]

Boosting the Nasdaq, Nvidia hit a record high, lifting the AI chipmaker's stock market valuation to $3 trillion as it passed Apple to become the world's second-most valuable company.

The ECB meets on Thursday, and markets price in an almost certain chance of a first rate cut.

"I have a positive view on tomorrow's cut because it marks the end of an era of rate hikes that began two years ago," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest.

"Now, we'll need to see the impact that rate cuts will have on domestic demand and the economic recovery".

Data showed euro zone business activity expanded in May at its quickest rate in a year as growth in services outpaced a contraction in manufacturing.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index was up 0.8% and the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1%. The Nikkei in Tokyo fell 0.9% as renewed strength in the Japanese yen weighed.

On Tuesday, data showed U.S. job openings fell more than expected in April to the lowest in more than three years. Markets now are pricing in 45 basis points of easing this year from the Fed.

Traders are pricing in a 65% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, up from 46% a week earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

"Economic data in America are frankly weakening. In the past, such data caused a robust repricing and then nice rallies in the stock market. Now, this is somewhat less so," said Giuseppe Sersale, portfolio manager at Anthilia.

"The market seems to be shifting from a phase where it celebrated bad data to being a little afraid that the slowdown will be a little more pronounced. This explains why stocks have been moving sideways for several weeks now," he added.

In keeping with expectations of lower U.S. rates, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.2832%, the lowest in more than two months. [US/]

Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, nudged lower to 2.527%, a day after its sharpest two-day drop since March.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was 0.14% higher at 104.3, just above the near two-month low of 103.99 it hit on Tuesday. [FRX/]

The dollar's recent strength will ebb over the next 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of strategists.

The yen weakened to 156.09 per dollar, a day after it had strengthened to a more than two-week high of 154.55.

In Asia, Indian markets stayed in focus, with stocks jumping over 3% after key allies pledged their support to form a new government following a narrow win for PM Narendra Modi.

India's Nifty 50 rose 3.4% in volatile trading after sliding nearly 6% on Tuesday, a day in which foreign investors sold roughly $1.5 billion of shares.

In commodities, oil prices were above four-month lows as traders weighed an OPEC+ decision to boost supply later this year and an increase in U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles.

Brent crude futures were last at 78.46 per barrel, up 1.2%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded at $74.1 a barrel, also up 1.2%. [O/R]

(Reporting by Danilo Masoni in Milan and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy, Alexander Smith and David Gregorio)