Built and operated by a consortium led by the majority state-owned Gazprom, the Nord Stream pipelines expanded Russia’s ability to weaponize energy by exerting control over natural gas pricing and rates of flow. For this reason, Putin’s adversaries, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, viewed Nord Stream 2 as a dangerous geopolitical weapon during its construction in 2021. Nord Stream 2’s completion meant Russia’s gas delivery to Europe – much of which is dependent on Russia for its natural gas needs – could largely bypass Ukraine and end the need to pay transit fees to both Ukraine and Poland.
As such, Ukraine had a clear interest in stopping the flow of gas through the Nord Stream pipelines. So, too, did Russia’s competitors in the European energy market, including Norway and the United States. And so too, arguably, did German political parties advocating for energy transition toward sustainable and renewable sources.
As such, it wasn’t such a jump for Western analysts to accuse Russia of destroying its own now-useless pipeline to signal its willingness and capacity to attack undersea infrastructure.
But as time passed, this view was crowded out by stories that treated the sabotage asa real-life whodunit mystery, with a focus on uncovering motives and means. Investigative journalists and other analysts studied statements in the public record, leaks from alleged whistleblowers, geospatial data, financial records and even reenactments of the attack in an attempt to crack the case.
Russia has since accused German prosecutors of preparing to close the investigation without identifying those responsible.
The appeal of this framing to Moscow is clear. First, it fits Putin’s argument that NATO is constantly scheming against Russia. And second, it offers the promise of Russia recouping the cost of the Nord Stream sabotage from insurance companies. Insurers have so far refused to pay out, citing official findings that the sabotage was “an act of war.”
Built and operated by a consortium led by the majority state-owned Gazprom, the Nord Stream pipelines expanded Russia’s ability to weaponize energy by exerting control over natural gas pricing and rates of flow. For this reason, Putin’s adversaries, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, viewed Nord Stream 2 as a dangerous geopolitical weapon during its construction in 2021. Nord Stream 2’s completion meant Russia’s gas delivery to Europe – much of which is dependent on Russia for its natural gas needs – could largely bypass Ukraine and end the need to pay transit fees to both Ukraine and Poland.
As such, Ukraine had a clear interest in stopping the flow of gas through the Nord Stream pipelines. So, too, did Russia’s competitors in the European energy market, including Norway and the United States. And so too, arguably, did German political parties advocating for energy transition toward sustainable and renewable sources.
As such, it wasn’t such a jump for Western analysts to accuse Russia of destroying its own now-useless pipeline to signal its willingness and capacity to attack undersea infrastructure.
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