By Marc Jones
LONDON (Reuters) - Sunday's Euro 2024 final between England and Spain and the Copa America showdown between Argentina and Colombia both look like being tight affairs - but history shows there is one thing that usually comes out on top - the winning side's stock market.
Of the last six Euro Championship winners, Greece, Spain and Italy's bourses have all outperformed the pan-European STOXX 600 after their victories, while only France in 2000 and Portugal after its 2016 title saw notable underperformances.
Perhaps a reflection of the shock of the triumph, the Athens market outran the STOXX by an impressive 20% six months on from Greece's 2004 win - a couple of years before the country's debt crisis kicked off, of course.
The first of Spain's back-to-back trophies in 2008 and 2012 came at the height of the global financial crisis, meaning most stock markets were taking a dive, but the Spanish bourse still managed to outperform by losing 5% less than the benchmark over the next half a year.
Then 2012 was even more dramatic, coming during the second peak of the euro zone debt crisis and just before then ECB President Mario Draghi calmed markets by vowing to do "whatever it takes" to fix things.
That meant Madrid's IBEX initially slumped despite Spain's 4-0 thumping of Italy in the final. But by the end of that year, it had outscored the STOXX by around 4%, which incidentally was how much the FTSE MIB outperformed after Italy's win last time out.
IT'S MESSI
Analysts and academics have looked into this kind of impact before.
Research published by Britain's University of Surrey using OECD data going back to 1961 showed that winning the World Cup increases GDP growth by at least 0.25 percentage points in the two subsequent quarters.
A study by Goldman Sachs in 2014 also found that every World Cup winner since 1974 had also seen its stock market outperform, with the exception of the 2002 tournament when Brazil’s victory was overshadowed by a deep recession.
The Copa America final between the mercurial Lionel Messi's Argentina and Colombia, who haven't lifted the trophy since 2001, could be enthralling therefore on and off the pitch.
Argentina's markets are known for their crises and defaults, but have been on a strong run since radical libertarian Javier Milei became president, whereas Colombian stocks have had a much bumpier ride in recent months.
Copa wins do appear to give boost as well. Argentina's stocks outperformed MSCI's pan-Latam index by almost 50% after its 2021 Copa win, which was its first major title in 28 years. And Brazil's bourse beat it by 9% when it won in 2019.
So what about currencies? Well, they don't seem to do so well.
A study by Deutsche Bank before the last Euros final between Italy and England showed that on a trade-weighted basis the pound had fallen during each of the last 13 major competitions that England qualified for, and the day after they bowed out.
This time around though it has racked up a 1.1% win. Will that translate to England's fortunes in Berlin?
(Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Toby Chopra)