Uruguay set for election dominated by pensions, crime

By Lucinda Elliott

MONTEVIDEO (Reuters) - In Uruguay's capital Montevideo and around this South American nation of 3.4 million people, voters are gearing up for Sunday's election, overshadowed by a plebiscite on pensions the same day and fears over crime.

Uruguayans will vote for the next president, vice president and members of parliament, with polls showing a likely runoff needed. If no presidential candidate receives over 50% of the vote on Sunday, a second round will be held on Nov. 24.

Ballot stations open on Sunday at 7:30 a.m. (1030 GMT) with results expected after 9:30 p.m. locally. Polling shows Broad Front center-left candidate Yamandu Orsi in the lead for president, with ruling conservative coalition candidate Alvaro Delgado second.

Uruguay's race between two centrist candidates bucks a Latin America trend of big political shifts. Argentina voted in a third-place outsider last year, libertarian President Javier Milei and Mexico's first female President, Claudia Sheinbaum, took office in October.

"This country needs an overall change," Vivian Sanabria, 64, told Reuters, adding she planned to vote for Orsi, citing issues such as education, support for the elderly and healthcare.

Orsi, a 57-year-old former mayor, has pledged to focus on economic growth and keep taxes down with a moderate "modern-left" platform. His rival, 55-year-old Delgado, comes from within the current government, offering stability.

"I am going to vote for Alvaro Delgado. He's the one that gives me the most confidence," said Martin Mendez, 40. "He'll keep getting the good results this government has had."

But continuity is a doubled-edged sword. Voters have been generally happy with the economy under the current conservative government, despite fiscal deficits that need addressing. But crime and fears about drug gangs have become key voter concerns.

"We fear for our teenage children when they leave early in the morning to take the bus to high school," said 37-year-old Sol Gonzalez who said she often hears gunfire at night.

Grisly turf battles between small drug-dealing clans on the city's outskirts and violent crimes have shocked the relatively tranquil nation unaccustomed to gang violence.

Delgado and Orsi also need to fend off third-place social media-savvy challenger Andres Ojeda, 40. If Delgado makes the second round, Ojeda has pledged to back him, making for a likely tight run-off.

PENSION REFERENDUM

Hanging over the vote is a plebiscite, also on Sunday, to overhaul Uruguay's $22.5-billion private pension system, lowering retirement age to 60 and boosting payouts. The divisive plan is rattling politicians and investors who say it could have far-reaching implications for the small $77-billion economy that relies on farm exports.

While economists and the main candidates warn it could cripple the state's finances and mean higher taxes, many Uruguayans, squeezed by high prices, support retiring earlier.

In the inner-city Montevideo neighborhood of Larranaga, canteen cook Camilo Rodriguez, 47, worried about his retirement as he prepared breaded beef cuts, known as milanesas, for lunchtime customers. 

Rodriguez was still debating his pick for president, but said he was ready to cast his ballot in favor of the pension reform, hoping to reverse "undignified" financial conditions for older Uruguayans.

"You need serious creativity to imagine how you'll live off a pension in the future," said Rodriguez. Retirees receive around $450 (18,840 pesos) as a minimum monthly state pension and the reform would provide more generous payouts, he added. 

Polls suggest support for the measure has fallen slightly. In October, 47% said they planned to back the measure, down from 53% in September, data from pollster Factum show. The plebiscite needs a simple majority to pass and is binding.

There is also a plebiscite on allowing nighttime police raids on homes.

Uruguay's rising levels of violence are fueled by changing cocaine smuggling routes and the governing conservative coalition is struggling to defend its security record. 

"The security issue is not really working, many promises haven't been met," said Maria del Carmen Cotelo, 66, signaling she would vote for change. "We have to move on."  

(Reporting by Lucinda Elliott and Alejandro Obaldia in Montevideo; Editing by Adam Jourdan and Rod Nickel)