US hopeful that likelihood of wider conflict breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah has reduced, officials say

(CNN) — Days after Hezbollah and Israel exchanged some of the heaviest cross-border fire in years, US officials are tentatively hopeful that the threat of a larger conflict between the two sides has, at least for now, been forestalled, though they are still closely watching Iran to see whether it strikes Israeli targets.

The US assesses that Hezbollah, the most powerful, capable and independent of Iran’s proxies across the region, does not want a full-scale war with Israel now, according to current and former US officials, even as it has engaged in a long-running series of relatively contained fire across the border.

Hezbollah felt it had to respond to the Israeli assassination of one of its most senior commanders, Fu’ad Shukr, last month. But analysts say the targets selected by Hezbollah were military targets, hinting at a clear effort by the group to signal that its response was proportionate and to contain the risk of escalation.

That’s not to say tensions in the Middle East are not high. Officials believe that Iran may still respond to the Israeli killing of a top Hamas official in Tehran — and that there may be further attacks from other Iranian-backed groups.

And uncertainty still hangs over the region as the conflict in Gaza grinds on, with a mounting Palestinian death toll and the two men responsible for reaching a resolution — Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — still very far apart.

But by Tuesday, Hezbollah had announced that its retaliation was “over.” Talks over a possible ceasefire in Gaza are limping along, moving from Cairo to Doha, Qatar, and Hezbollah and Israel’s exchanges have returned to typical tit-for-tat strikes across the border.

Concerns were high last week that a major flare-up could trigger a wider war. On Saturday night, Israel acted on intelligence to preemptively strike more than 40 Hezbollah launch sites that it said were poised to be used in a major attack. Hezbollah quickly responded, firing what it said were both attack drones and more than 300 rockets at Israel.

US officials said the speed of the Hezbollah response showed that it was prepared to launch a large-scale attack, and CNN has previously reported the group had already selected targets.

One US military official said the original scope of the attack was expected to be roughly equivalent to what Hezbollah ultimately fired — over 300 projectiles. The Israeli military said the attack did “very little damage.”

But almost immediately, Hezbollah was using public language that appeared aimed at cooling tensions.

Officials and analysts say Hezbollah is well aware that a full-scale war with Israel would be incredibly destructive and offer little opportunity for strategic victory. The last time the two sides went to war, in 2006, hundreds of thousands of people were forced to flee their homes, more than 1,000 Lebanese people were killed, and civilian infrastructure and the Lebanese economy were damaged — all without a clear “victory” or resolution.

Now, analysts say, Hezbollah likely knows that it lacks the domestic political support it would need to engage in all-out war with Israel — at a time when Lebanon’s economy and political system are already in shambles.

“There’s long memories of 2006 and how the population blamed Hezbollah and [Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah personally for what came — and that was a time when the Lebanese economy and political system was functioning,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former US senior intelligence analyst specializing in the region.

“I think eventually there will be a major war,” he added. “But I’m skeptical it’s going to happen [now], from an intention perspective.”

Watching Iran closely

Although Washington officials have speculated that Iran and Hezbollah could coordinate their responses to Israel for the assassination of the Hamas leader and the Hezbollah commander, some analysts say the dynamics are distinct. Hezbollah, officials said, has a far more direct stake in responding to Israel — and indeed, for weeks, officials have told CNN that they were more concerned about Hezbollah’s reaction than Iran’s.

In April, Iran launched a massive salvo of missiles and drones at Israel in response to the Israeli killing of a senior Iranian commander in what Iran considered a diplomatic compound.

But the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was different. The Iranian regime was “embarrassed,” said one source familiar with US intelligence, because the killing showed massive gaps in Iranian security — but ultimately, this person and others said, Haniyeh was not Iranian.

Although Iran may be coming under pressure from some of its proxies to take a more aggressive stance against Israel, US officials believe that it is still deciding how and whether to respond — and that it is deeply reluctant to risk a possible regional war by engaging in direct conflict with Israel.

“The issue is about embarrassment and restoring deterrence, but less about actual retribution,” Panikoff said. “There’s more variables that might restrain Iran because of who Israel actually killed.”

Still, the US has not discounted the possibility that Iran may yet launch an attack on Israel.

“We have to assume that Iran remains postured and prepared, should that be a decision that they make, which is why we continue to maintain a very robust force posture in the region,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Monday when asked whether there was an updated assessment on the likelihood that Tehran would strike Israel directly.

Gaza ceasefire talks

The worst may have been avoided for now, but US officials remain deeply concerned that the possibility of a broader regional war is only growing without a resolution to the conflict in Gaza.

Officials have said publicly and privately that the strikes over the weekend had little impact on the ceasefire talks ongoing in Cairo.

“No, there was not an impact on the talks in Cairo, and we’re certainly glad to see that,” Kirby said, adding that “there continues to be progress, and our team on the ground continues to describe the talks as constructive.”

But even if the events of the weekend didn’t damage the talks, hopes are still dwindling that those discussions will yield peace — even as Biden administration officials continue to express optimism.

Kirby noted that all sides, including Hamas, are represented in the talks and that the discussions have been able to move on with more specificity as they work to hammer out a deal.

“I think it’s safe to say that the issues they’re going to be talking about are of a much more detailed, specific nature than we’ve typically been able to talk about,” he said. “For instance, one issue that will be for the working groups to flesh out is the exchange of hostages and prisoners that Israel’s holding.”

Still, Israel has made it clear that following an initial six-week pause in the fighting, a break may be just that — a break — and it is not ready to agree to a permanent ceasefire.

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