What's at stake in Moldova's election and referendum on Oct 20?

By Alexander Tanas

CHISINAU (Reuters) - Moldova's pro-Western president, Maia Sandu, is seeking a second term in a presidential election on Oct. 20, when the country will also hold a referendum on joining the European Union.

Here's a look at what's at stake.

WHAT ARE THE ISSUES IN MOLDOVA?

Moldova is a small southeast European republic of under 3 million people located between Romania and Ukraine. It has a Romanian-speaking majority and a large Russian-speaking minority, and since the breakup of the Soviet Union has alternated between pro-Western and pro-Russian courses.

The pro-Western camp has been firmly in charge since Sandu won office in 2020 and her party won a majority in parliament the following year. Her government supports closer integration with the West including membership in the EU by 2030. She strongly opposed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and has accused Russia of seeking her overthrow, which Moscow denies.

During fighting in Ukraine, imports of Russian natural gas have been sharply curtailed, causing high inflation and prompting the government to seek out alternative sources of energy.

Moscow has nearly 1,500 troops stationed in Transdnistria, a region bounded by the Dniester river run by pro-Russian separatists who broke away from the control of the Chisinau government in a brief war in the 1990s.

WHAT ARE MOLDOVANS VOTING FOR?

A first round of the presidential election will be held on Oct. 20. If none of the 11 candidates wins more than 50% of the vote, the election will go to a run-off on Nov. 3.

Separately, Moldovans will vote "Yes" or "No" on Oct. 20 on a referendum on enshrining EU membership as a strategic goal in the constitution.

WHAT DO POLLS PREDICT?

A CBS-AXA poll gave Sandu 36.1% support, far ahead of any of her 10 challengers.

Her top two opponents, according to the poll, are Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor backed by the traditionally pro-Russian Party of Socialists, on 10.1% support, and Renato Usatii, a former mayor of the northern city of Balti, with 7.5%.

In the CBS-AXA poll, 63% supported joining the EU.

WHAT'S AT STAKE?

Though the election may go to a second round, Sandu appears likely to win a new term and continue her pro-Western course, conducting reforms and winning Western financing.

A weaker-than-expected result could put her right-centrist Party of Action and Solidarity on a shaky footing at a parliamentary election next year, when its majority could be in jeopardy.

The opposition has criticised the referendum as a stunt aimed at boosting Sandu's presidential campaign. Some candidates who say they support EU membership in principle are calling on voters either to boycott it or to vote against.

A "No" vote would be a blow to Sandu's political reputation but would not be binding.

WHAT ABOUT ALLEGATIONS OF RUSSIAN MEDDLING?

The government has in recent years denounced persistent Russian meddling in Moldova's affairs, while Moscow has accused Sandu and her team of fomenting "Russophobia".

On Oct. 4, the police said criminal groups with Russian backing were intent on disrupting the vote with actions ranging up to an attempt to seize state institutions.

This month, the national police chief accused Moscow of channelling $15 million in September through the network of an exiled pro-Russian businessman, Ilan Shor, to bribe more than 130,000 Moldovans to vote against the referendum and for Russia-friendly candidates.

Shor, who has openly offered to pay people to persuade others to vote against European integration, has said the real sum is more than $15 million, but that the funds are from his business, not Russia, and that it does not constitute bribery.

(Writing by Tom Balmforth; Editing by Peter Graff and Kevin Liffey)