The Beirut killing was a bold and risky move by Israel, carried out in broad daylight in the city despite repeated requests by the U.S. and other Western countries not to target Lebanon’s capital.
In carrying through with the Beirut operation, Israel has pushed the limits of the “rules of the game” in its post-Oct. 7 war of attrition with Hezbollah. Until now, the Lebanese capital was targeted only once by Israel with the Jan. 2, 2024, assassination of Saleh Arouri, another Hamas leader, not far from where Shukr was killed.
Back then, it was assumed that Hezbollah would not escalate the conflict for the sake of the death of a Palestinian leader, important as he may have been.
But there is little doubt that Hezbollah will respond to this new attack; the questions are how and when, and whether its response will bring the adversaries another step closer to a full war.
An embarrassment to Iran
The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran was done in the context of Israel’s declared commitment to kill all Hamas leaders involved in the Oct. 7 massacre, although the country has not officially claimed responsibility for the strike, as is its usual practice.
Israel reportedly guaranteed Qatar, Haniyeh’s host country, that it would not target Hamas leaders within its borders. Israel also chose not to kill him during Haniyeh’s recent visit to Turkey, potentially out of concern of further alienating Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Instead, it appears Israel waited for the right opportunity at a different spot that would send a clear message, not only to Hamas but more broadly to Israel’s main regional adversary, and Hamas’ main sponsor, Iran.
Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran puts the Iranian regime in an embarrassing position. The strike by a foreign country openly violated Iran’s sovereignty at the time when the regime was preparing to celebrate the appointment of a new president. The Hamas chief was among international dignitaries invited to the inauguration.
The attack demonstrates two things: Iran’s vulnerability and Israel’s ability to carry out an attack based on precise intelligence and superior technology. Either way, it exposes the Iranian regime’s weaknesses.
The last time Iran claimed its sovereignty was violated by Israel – during the April 1, 2024, attack on its embassy in Damascus – it responded by launching hundreds of missiles and attack drones against Israel.
Iran could use its proxies, including Hezbollah, this time around, or it could respond directly, using its own military from its own territory, as it did in April. On July 31, it was reported that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had ordered a direct strike.
Israel’s domestic fissures
The assassinations have, I presume, closed the door on chances of any cease-fire agreement in Gaza, including the release of Israeli hostages, any time soon.
The killings also make the war of attrition between Israel and Hezbollah more volatile and riskier.
All parties, including Israel, are seemingly aware that full-scale war is not in anyone’s interests, which would explain why that level of escalation hasn’t been seen, despite months of provocation by all involved.
But at the same time, the region inches toward that possibility; the Middle East is in a moment of extreme fragility.
And all of this is happening while, domestically, Israel is facing major challenges to its political system and the rule of law. The war in Gaza has brought to the fore forces within Israeli society that are openly seeking to change its political system and challenge both the command structure and combat culture of the military.
A recent mob attack, led by far-right Knesset members, on military police investigating charges of torture and sexual assault of Hamas prisoners in Israel is only one example of the fissures developing within the Jewish-Israeli society.