Canada's TSX to extend record-setting rally as metal prices soar: Reuters poll

By Fergal Smith

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's commodity-linked main stock index will take a breather for the rest of this year but is set to notch record highs as metal prices climb and expected lower borrowing costs bolster the outlook for the domestic economy, a Reuters poll found.

The TSX has added 7.2% since the start of the year, moving above its previous record closing high set in March 2022 to end at 22,468.16 on Tuesday.

"We anticipate the stock market to continue its upward momentum into the summer and beyond, driven by robust earnings and interest rate cuts on the horizon," said Brandon Michael, senior investment analyst at ABC Funds.

Investors have raised bets on the Bank of Canada beginning an easing cycle with its next policy announcement on June 5 after data on Tuesday showed the annual rate of inflation falling to a three-year low of 2.7%.

The median prediction of 21 portfolio managers and strategists in the May 13-22 poll was for the S&P/TSX Composite Index to advance just 0.1% to 22,500 by the end of 2024, but that is higher than the 21,750 expected in February's poll.

It is then expected to soar to 24,300 by the end of 2025, a gain of 8.2%.

"As we go into 2025, markets will look forward to the positive impact of falling interest rates on the Canadian economy and global economy," said Macan Nia, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife Investment Management.

A recovery in the domestic economy would help bank stocks, while a pickup in global economic activity would be a boost to resource shares, Nia added.

Canada's big six banks are expected to set aside more money for bad loans when they begin reporting quarterly earnings on Thursday.

The financials sector, which includes banks, accounts for 29% of the Toronto market's weighting, while the energy and materials sectors account for a combined 33%.

The materials sector includes fertilizer and metal mining companies. Gold and copper have climbed in recent days to record highs.

"General gains in the global economy have translated into base metal price gains. We see this continuing to benefit the Canadian stock market," said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

Eight of 13 analysts who answered a separate question said a correction of 10% or more is unlikely or highly unlikely over the coming three months.

"The data would show strong momentum follows strong momentum. While a correction is always a possibility, it is no more a possibility today than in other periods," Petursson said.

(Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; additional polling by Indradip Ghosh, Pranoy Krishna and Purujit Arun; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)