Weak spending, sticky prices, rising inflation expectations a bad mix for Fed

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. Federal Reserve's seemingly locked-in path to a soft landing, already roiled by the arrival of the Trump administration, may be growing even more complicated as evidence of consumer caution about spending starts to align with new inflation risks and another jump in inflation expectations.

Consumer spending and inflation data for February accentuated the point, with spending near zero once adjusted for inflation and a key measure of inflation itself increasing.

"No matter how you want to slice it, it's shaping up to be a very weak quarter for real spending, and it may end up being the weakest quarter since the depths of the (pandemic) lockdowns," Inflation Insights President Omair Sharif wrote.

Goldman Sachs economists following the data's release cut their forecast for first-quarter growth nearly in half, to 0.6% from 1%.

For the Fed, it could point to the worst of both worlds emerging, with a potential slowdown in growth, prices moving higher, and firms perhaps contemplating more sticker shock as President Donald Trump's new taxes on imports are put in place.

In the background: Consumer expectations about inflation are grinding higher, while market-based prices for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities show the outlook for inflation 10 years from now also rising.

Those figures are closely watched by the Fed, and are perhaps even more likely to make policymakers nervous about their grip on inflation and less likely to cut interest rates.

The latest University of Michigan consumer survey showed long-run inflation expectations topped 4% in March, double the Fed's target. While central bankers don't like to react to a single month's data, "long-run expectations have climbed sharply for three consecutive months and are now comparable to the peak readings from the post-pandemic inflationary episode," survey Director Joanne Hsu wrote. "They exhibit substantial uncertainty, particularly in light of frequent developments and changes with economic policy."

In the wake of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, analysts again tuned into the risk of "stagflation" - or inflation coupled with rising unemployment, a particular dilemma for the central bank.

Fed officials have begun noting the possible tension that may arise between their goals of keeping stable inflation and maximum employment. While comfortable waiting longer for inflation to fall while keeping their current policy rate stable, a steady rise in inflation expectations could shift the bias and put rate hikes back in play.

The Fed's main narrative until recently has been for a continued low unemployment rate and gradually falling inflation allowing for further cuts to a Fed policy rate currently held steady in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% - a generally "good news" outlook with cuts matching the drop in inflation.

"The PCE report for February makes grim reading," wrote Evercore ISI Vice Chair Krishna Guha. "Consumers – like businesses – are pulling back amid...uncertainty and an expected hit to real income from tariff-driven price increases. With core PCE (prices) 2.8% year-on-year even before the main effect of tariffs has hit, there is currently no scope for good news rate cuts."

(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci)