El Salvador voters set to trade democracy for promise of security in presidential election

In fact, for the majority of Salvadorans, physical violence has been a frequent part of daily life for generations. I have written about the 1932 massacre of Indigenous and working-class people, and the civil war from 1980 to 1992 as critical junctures that inform contemporary Salvadoran politics. The war forced families to flee to the U.S., where boys and young men formed gangs for protection and then were eventually deported back to El Salvador. Gang violence, as well as state violence, has made El Salvador unsafe in the 21st century.

Bukele’s safety agenda and violation of civil rights

Bukele’s “territorial control plan,” launched in 2019 shortly after he was elected, did little to diminish this gang violence. So after gangs murdered 87 people in a single weekend in March 2022, Bukele declared a “state of emergency.” Aimed not only at gangs but journalists and anyone Bukele considers opposition, the state of emergency has, for the past 22 months, seen the suspension of many constitutional rights – including the right to assemble, due process, and privacy in telecommunications.

By the end of 2023, over 74,000 people were incarcerated in the crackdown, with less than a third of those arrested during the state of emergency estimated to be gang members. Many others were charged without proper evidence – on the testimony of neighbors, on the basis of prior arrest records, or simply for having tattoos, as many Salvadorans told me in my 2024 fieldwork.

And once in prison, human rights abuses abound, including torture, inadequate food supply and poor sanitation, according to human rights groups. Family members of incarcerated people I’ve interviewed say that to keep their loved ones alive, they are expected to send food, clothing and hygiene products via packets into the prison at a cost of $100-$300 per month, despite a national monthly minimum wage of just $365.

Meanwhile women, children, LGBTQ+ people and others across El Salvador continue to be victimized.

My interviews in January 2024 in various parts of El Salvador suggest that police and military personnel have taken over previously gang-held terrain, replacing gang violence with state violence.

Public opinion and a return to dictatorship

Many Salvadorans say they feel safer since Bukele instated a state of emergency – now called the “state of exception.” A December 2023 poll found that most citizens are now more concerned with the economy. Bukele timed announcement of his crackdown well, right after his popularity began to wane.

But more recently, I’ve spoken with dozens of civil society stakeholders – including human rights workers, journalists, former lawmakers and current government employees – who say that the picture of an eminently safer El Salvador doesn’t reflect the lives of Salvadorans living behind bars or in communities exploited by police and armed forces.

Still, on Feb. 4, Salvadorans are likely to overlook those abuses and cast their vote in favor of security for the majority. And, to some extent, who can blame them? After years of civil war and then gang war, many Salvadorans are traumatized by violence. The promise of safety is compelling, even if it means living in a dictatorship.

But if and when the international community recognizes the legitimacy of the election, it will do so in the face of severe constitutional and procedural irregularities. Bukele’s efforts to dismantle those safeguards have already left El Salvador’s regime on shaky ground. A fresh mandate by the electorate might push Bukele further down an authoritarian path.

Mneesha Gellman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.