Fate of US Steel merger expected to be pushed beyond election day as politics cloud outlook

(CNN) — As presidential politics cloud the outlook of US Steel’s merger with its Japanese rival, a national security review of the deal is now not expected to be decided until after the election, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which evaluates the national security risks posed by deals with foreign entities, is expected to deliver its recommendation to the White House after November 5, these people said.

That timeline is meant to ensure that any recommendation is made outside the pressure cooker of an election cycle, in which all political parties have come out against the deal.

US Steel’s share price climbed significantly Friday after The Washington Post first reported that White House officials are signaling President Joe Biden will not imminently move to block the deal. Shares of the Pittsburgh-based US Steel (X) were recently trading 5% higher.

As sitting president, Biden wields the ultimate decision power, and had signaled he would be prepared to block the deal if the committee did not reach a consensus view, as CNN has reported.

The consequences of that position may have grown in the last week, after US Steel responded that it would be forced to lay off workers and shutter mills without Nippon’s backing, and in the wake of the news that Biden would be hosting the Japanese prime minister at his home in Delaware next weekend.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, during a White House visit in April, told reporters that the legal reviews would determine the deal’s outcome.

Several business groups sent a letter on Wednesday to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, warning of the risks of politicizing a process that is built to study national security risks on their merits.

“Unfortunately, there have been persistent attempts recently to politicize the committee’s work from across the political spectrum, allowing politics to undermine the clear and narrow statutory mandate of national security,” the business groups wrote in the letter. “America’s investment climate will be severely tarnished if such political interference prevails.”

Last week, Vice President Kamala Harris said during a campaign stop in Pittsburgh that she believes US Steel should remain “American owned and American operated.”

Both former President Donald Trump and his vice presidential nominee, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, have come out against the sale of US Steel to Nippon.

Multiple Rust Belt Democrats are also against the deal, including Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania.

US Steel put itself up for sale in 2023 after receiving an unsolicited, $7 billion takeover offer from Ohio-based Cleveland Cliffs. The $14.9 billion deal with Nippon Steel, Japan’s largest steelmaker, resulted from that sales process.

The White House has said it would await the recommendation of the committee, which has yet to make a decision on the matter, CNN has learned.

In a statement on Friday, White House spokesperson Saloni Sharma reiterated Biden believes it is “vital for US Steel to remain an American steel company that is domestically owned and operated.”

Saloni noted that the White House made clear last week it had not received a recommendation from CFIUS, indicating a decision “could not have been imminent.”

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat who was a finalist to be Harris’ VP pick, has been in touch with workers, the private sector and the Biden administration on the deal, and his office has warned against letting politics get in the way.

“The last thing the situation calls for is irresponsible political rhetoric and threats against the workers of Western Pennsylvania,” Manuel Bonder, Shapiro’s press secretary, said in a statement last week.

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